Baytex Energy Stock Forward View

BTE Stock  USD 3.49  0.06  1.75%   
Baytex Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Baytex Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Baytex Energy Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Baytex Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of relative strength index of Baytex Energy's stock price is about 63 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Baytex, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Baytex Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Baytex Energy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Baytex Energy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Baytex Energy Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Baytex Energy's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.83)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.04
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.095
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.28
Wall Street Target Price
3.6751
Using Baytex Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Baytex Energy Corp from the perspective of Baytex Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Baytex Energy using Baytex Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Baytex using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Baytex Energy's stock price.

Baytex Energy Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Baytex Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Baytex. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Baytex Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
2.3547
Short Ratio
1.14
Shares Short Prior Month
23.2 M
50 Day MA
3.215
Shares Short
19.1 M

Baytex Relative Strength Index

The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Baytex Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.63.

Baytex Energy Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Baytex Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Baytex. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Baytex can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Baytex Energy Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Baytex Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Baytex Energy.

Baytex Energy Implied Volatility

    
  1.34  
Baytex Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Baytex Energy Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Baytex Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Baytex Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Baytex Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Baytex Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.63.

Baytex Energy after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 3.49  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baytex Energy to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Baytex contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Baytex Energy Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0838% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Baytex Energy trading at USD 3.49, that is roughly USD 0.002923 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Baytex Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Baytex Energy Corp options at the current volatility level of 1.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Baytex Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Baytex Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Baytex Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Baytex Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Baytex Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Baytex Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Baytex Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Baytex. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Baytex Energy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Baytex price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Baytex using various technical indicators. When you analyze Baytex charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Baytex Energy Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Baytex Energy's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1996-03-31
Previous Quarter
7.2 M
Current Value
10.4 M
Quarterly Volatility
40 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Baytex Energy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Baytex Energy Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Baytex Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Baytex Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Baytex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Baytex Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Baytex Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Baytex Energy  Baytex Energy Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Baytex Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Baytex Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Baytex Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.52 and 6.41, respectively. We have considered Baytex Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.49
3.47
Expected Value
6.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Baytex Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Baytex Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.9157
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0594
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0197
SAESum of the absolute errors3.6254
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Baytex Energy Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Baytex Energy. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Baytex Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Baytex Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Baytex Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.533.496.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.243.206.16
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.343.684.08
Details

Baytex Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Baytex Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Baytex Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Baytex Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Baytex Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Baytex Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Baytex Energy's historical news coverage. Baytex Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.53 and 6.45, respectively. We have considered Baytex Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
3.49
3.49
After-hype Price
6.45
Upside
Baytex Energy is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Baytex Energy Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Baytex Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Baytex Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Baytex Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Baytex Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.68 
2.95
  0.08 
  0.08 
12 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 12 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.49
3.49
0.00 
2,458  
Notes

Baytex Energy Hype Timeline

On the 31st of January Baytex Energy Corp is traded for 3.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Baytex is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.68%. %. The volatility of related hype on Baytex Energy is about 2587.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.41. About 40.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.87. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Baytex Energy Corp last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 12 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baytex Energy to cross-verify your projections.

Baytex Energy Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Baytex Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Baytex Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Baytex Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Baytex Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CLMTCalumet Specialty Products 0.85 11 per month 1.44  0.08  2.75 (2.44) 6.76 
TALOTalos Energy(0.03)7 per month 2.21  0.12  4.53 (3.60) 11.38 
NOGNorthern Oil Gas(0.07)7 per month 2.34  0.08  5.26 (3.89) 10.76 
EFXTEnerflex 0.01 9 per month 1.61  0.23  3.88 (3.16) 11.18 
DHTDHT Holdings 0.64 8 per month 1.36  0.09  3.00 (2.35) 12.28 
NEXTNextdecade Corp 0.18 10 per month 0.00 (0.04) 5.21 (6.04) 17.50 
SMSM Energy Co(1.14)4 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.59 (4.49) 10.18 
CRGYCrescent Energy Co 0.11 10 per month 3.02  0.08  4.89 (5.18) 15.66 
BKVBKV Corporation(1.29)7 per month 2.14  0.18  5.14 (3.24) 19.36 
SDRLSeadrill Limited(0.40)11 per month 2.23  0.11  4.85 (3.85) 14.86 

Other Forecasting Options for Baytex Energy

For every potential investor in Baytex, whether a beginner or expert, Baytex Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Baytex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Baytex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Baytex Energy's price trends.

Baytex Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Baytex Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Baytex Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Baytex Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Baytex Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Baytex Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Baytex Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Baytex Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Baytex Energy Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Baytex Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Baytex Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Baytex Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting baytex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Baytex Energy

The number of cover stories for Baytex Energy depends on current market conditions and Baytex Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Baytex Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Baytex Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Baytex Energy Short Properties

Baytex Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Baytex Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Baytex Energy Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Baytex Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Baytex Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding800.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments16.6 M
When determining whether Baytex Energy Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Baytex Energy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Baytex Energy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Baytex Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baytex Energy to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could Baytex diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Baytex Energy. Projected growth potential of Baytex fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Baytex Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.83)
Dividend Share
0.09
Earnings Share
0.21
Revenue Per Share
3.957
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
The market value of Baytex Energy Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Baytex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Baytex Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Baytex Energy's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Baytex Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Baytex Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Baytex Energy's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Baytex Energy should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Baytex Energy's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.