Burford Capital Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BUR Stock | USD 9.65 0.10 1.03% |
Burford Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Burford Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Burford Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Burford Capital fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength indicator of Burford Capital's share price is at 51 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Burford Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.625 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3553 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1014 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5859 | Wall Street Target Price 19.125 |
Using Burford Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Burford Capital from the perspective of Burford Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Burford Capital using Burford Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Burford using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Burford Capital's stock price.
Burford Capital Short Interest
An investor who is long Burford Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Burford Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge Burford Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 11.8583 | Short Percent 0.0402 | Short Ratio 4.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.4 M | 50 Day MA 9.1954 |
Burford Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Burford Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 9.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.38.Burford Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Burford Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Burford. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Burford can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Burford Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Burford Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Burford Capital.
Burford Capital Implied Volatility | 1.11 |
Burford Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Burford Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Burford Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Burford Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Burford Capital's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Burford Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 9.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.38. Burford Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 9.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Burford Capital to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Burford contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Burford Capital will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0694% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Burford Capital trading at USD 9.65, that is roughly USD 0.006695 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Burford Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Burford Capital options at the current volatility level of 1.11%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Burford Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Burford Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Burford Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Burford Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Burford Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Burford Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Burford Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Burford. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Burford Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Burford price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Burford using various technical indicators. When you analyze Burford charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Burford Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Burford Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 9.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Burford Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Burford Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Burford Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Burford Capital | Burford Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Burford Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Burford Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Burford Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.42 and 11.88, respectively. We have considered Burford Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Burford Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Burford Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1225 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0057 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1563 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.38 |
Predictive Modules for Burford Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Burford Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Burford Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Burford Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Burford Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Burford Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Burford Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Burford Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Burford Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Burford Capital's historical news coverage. Burford Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.42 and 11.88, respectively. We have considered Burford Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Burford Capital is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Burford Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Burford Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Burford Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Burford Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Burford Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.65 | 9.65 | 0.00 |
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Burford Capital Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Burford Capital is traded for 9.65. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Burford is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Burford Capital is about 2064.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.65. About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.85. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Burford Capital has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 269.0. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of October 2025. The firm had 1:1 split on the February 18, 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Burford Capital to cross-verify your projections.Burford Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Burford Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Burford Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Burford Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Burford Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | 0.14 | 8 per month | 1.07 | (0.03) | 2.13 | (2.11) | 5.76 | |
| ECC | Eagle Point Credit | 0.12 | 8 per month | 1.49 | 0.01 | 2.49 | (2.11) | 10.10 | |
| GCMG | GCM Grosvenor | (0.10) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.08 | (2.83) | 6.61 | |
| SII | Sprott Inc | (0.69) | 15 per month | 1.45 | 0.30 | 4.64 | (2.98) | 11.26 | |
| OAK-PB | Oaktree Capital Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.79 | (0.1) | 1.34 | (1.17) | 4.82 | |
| TY | Tri Continental Closed | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.04 | (0.89) | 7.86 | |
| BBT | Beacon Financial | (0.25) | 9 per month | 1.44 | 0.11 | 4.08 | (3.01) | 9.56 | |
| PAX | Patria Investments | (0.30) | 11 per month | 1.33 | 0.07 | 2.24 | (2.37) | 7.49 | |
| OAK-PA | Oaktree Capital Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | (0.09) | 1.20 | (1.28) | 5.00 | |
| MRX | Marex Group plc | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.24 | 0.17 | 4.61 | (1.88) | 9.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Burford Capital
For every potential investor in Burford, whether a beginner or expert, Burford Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Burford Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Burford. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Burford Capital's price trends.Burford Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Burford Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Burford Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Burford Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Burford Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Burford Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Burford Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Burford Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Burford Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.65 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.82 |
Burford Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Burford Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Burford Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting burford stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Variance | 6.5 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Burford Capital
The number of cover stories for Burford Capital depends on current market conditions and Burford Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Burford Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Burford Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Burford Capital Short Properties
Burford Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Burford Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Burford Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Burford Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Burford Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 219.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 469.9 M |
Additional Tools for Burford Stock Analysis
When running Burford Capital's price analysis, check to measure Burford Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Burford Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Burford Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Burford Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Burford Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Burford Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.