Burlington Stores Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| BURL Stock | USD 297.96 1.98 0.66% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Burlington Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 297.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 344.02. Burlington Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Burlington Stores' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Burlington Stores' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Burlington Stores fundamentals over time.
As of now the value of rsi of Burlington Stores' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.164 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.7552 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.1423 | Wall Street Target Price 339.2857 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.6366 |
Using Burlington Stores hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Burlington Stores from the perspective of Burlington Stores response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Burlington Stores using Burlington Stores' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Burlington using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Burlington Stores' stock price.
Burlington Stores Short Interest
An investor who is long Burlington Stores may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Burlington Stores and may potentially protect profits, hedge Burlington Stores with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 263.9791 | Short Percent 0.0573 | Short Ratio 3.06 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.6 M | 50 Day MA 282.1638 |
Burlington Stores Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Burlington Stores' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Burlington. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Burlington can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Burlington Stores. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Burlington Stores Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Burlington Stores' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Burlington Stores stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Burlington Stores' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Burlington Stores stock will not fluctuate a lot when Burlington Stores' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Burlington Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 297.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 344.02. Burlington Stores after-hype prediction price | USD 297.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Burlington contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Burlington Stores will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0325% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Burlington Stores trading at USD 297.96, that is roughly USD 0.0968 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Burlington Stores' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Burlington Stores options at the current volatility level of 0.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Burlington Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Burlington Stores' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Burlington Stores' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Burlington Stores stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Burlington Stores' open interest, investors have to compare it to Burlington Stores' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Burlington Stores is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Burlington. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Burlington Stores Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Burlington price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Burlington using various technical indicators. When you analyze Burlington charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Burlington Stores Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Burlington Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 297.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.73, mean absolute percentage error of 67.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 344.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Burlington Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Burlington Stores' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Burlington Stores Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Burlington Stores | Burlington Stores Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Burlington Stores Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Burlington Stores' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Burlington Stores' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 295.25 and 300.67, respectively. We have considered Burlington Stores' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Burlington Stores stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Burlington Stores stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.4826 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6159 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.7336 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 344.015 |
Predictive Modules for Burlington Stores
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Burlington Stores. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Burlington Stores After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Burlington Stores at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Burlington Stores or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Burlington Stores, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Burlington Stores Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Burlington Stores' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Burlington Stores' historical news coverage. Burlington Stores' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 295.16 and 300.58, respectively. We have considered Burlington Stores' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Burlington Stores is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Burlington Stores is based on 3 months time horizon.
Burlington Stores Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Burlington Stores is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Burlington Stores backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Burlington Stores, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.71 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 16 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 16 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
297.96 | 297.87 | 0.03 |
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Burlington Stores Hype Timeline
Burlington Stores is currently traded for 297.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.18. Burlington is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 297.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Burlington Stores is about 286.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 298.14. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.99. Burlington Stores recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.7. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 16 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Burlington Stores to cross-verify your projections.Burlington Stores Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Burlington Stores' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Burlington Stores' future price movements. Getting to know how Burlington Stores' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Burlington Stores may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LULU | Lululemon Athletica | (0.30) | 2 per month | 2.39 | 0.04 | 4.31 | (3.90) | 16.10 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | 1.03 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.36 | (2.85) | 10.22 | |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | 0.71 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.13 | (3.41) | 14.16 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | (0.49) | 26 per month | 1.31 | 0.01 | 2.82 | (1.86) | 7.35 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | 3.70 | 8 per month | 1.49 | 0.05 | 2.23 | (2.25) | 9.89 | |
| PKG | Packaging Corp of | (0.49) | 14 per month | 1.53 | 0.05 | 2.94 | (2.32) | 8.20 | |
| RL | Ralph Lauren Corp | 3.88 | 11 per month | 1.31 | 0.06 | 3.09 | (2.19) | 7.40 | |
| AMCR | Amcor PLC | (0.49) | 11 per month | 1.77 | 0.02 | 2.00 | (1.88) | 10.51 | |
| AS | Amer Sports | (0.99) | 10 per month | 1.50 | 0.11 | 4.18 | (2.65) | 12.43 | |
| APTV | Aptiv PLC | 2.89 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.41 | (4.26) | 11.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for Burlington Stores
For every potential investor in Burlington, whether a beginner or expert, Burlington Stores' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Burlington Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Burlington. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Burlington Stores' price trends.Burlington Stores Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Burlington Stores stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Burlington Stores could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Burlington Stores by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Burlington Stores Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Burlington Stores stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Burlington Stores shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Burlington Stores stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Burlington Stores entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 15194.35 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.35) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 298.24 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 298.15 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.27) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.98) |
Burlington Stores Risk Indicators
The analysis of Burlington Stores' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Burlington Stores' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting burlington stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Variance | 6.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Burlington Stores
The number of cover stories for Burlington Stores depends on current market conditions and Burlington Stores' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Burlington Stores is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Burlington Stores' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Burlington Stores Short Properties
Burlington Stores' future price predictability will typically decrease when Burlington Stores' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Burlington Stores often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Burlington Stores' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Burlington Stores' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 64.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 994.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Burlington Stores to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Burlington Stock please use our How to buy in Burlington Stock guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Burlington Stores. If investors know Burlington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Burlington Stores listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.164 | Earnings Share 8.7 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.071 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Burlington Stores is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Burlington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Burlington Stores' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Burlington Stores' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Burlington Stores' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Burlington Stores' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Burlington Stores' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Burlington Stores is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Burlington Stores' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.