Bavarian Nordic Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BVNRY Stock | USD 10.25 0.10 0.97% |
Bavarian Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Bavarian Nordic's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Bavarian Nordic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bavarian Nordic AS from the perspective of Bavarian Nordic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bavarian Nordic AS on the next trading day is expected to be 10.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.41. Bavarian Nordic after-hype prediction price | USD 10.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Bavarian |
Bavarian Nordic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bavarian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bavarian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bavarian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bavarian Nordic Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bavarian Nordic AS on the next trading day is expected to be 10.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bavarian Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bavarian Nordic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bavarian Nordic Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bavarian Nordic | Bavarian Nordic Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Bavarian Nordic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bavarian Nordic's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bavarian Nordic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.75 and 11.76, respectively. We have considered Bavarian Nordic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bavarian Nordic pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bavarian Nordic pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2216 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0153 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1051 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.4106 |
Predictive Modules for Bavarian Nordic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bavarian Nordic AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bavarian Nordic After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bavarian Nordic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bavarian Nordic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Bavarian Nordic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bavarian Nordic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bavarian Nordic's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bavarian Nordic's historical news coverage. Bavarian Nordic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.74 and 11.76, respectively. We have considered Bavarian Nordic's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bavarian Nordic is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bavarian Nordic AS is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bavarian Nordic Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bavarian Nordic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bavarian Nordic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bavarian Nordic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.25 | 10.25 | 0.00 |
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Bavarian Nordic Hype Timeline
Bavarian Nordic AS is currently traded for 10.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Bavarian is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bavarian Nordic is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.25. The book value of the company was currently reported as 38.27. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.44. Bavarian Nordic AS last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2020. The entity had 3:1 split on the 20th of January 2016. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bavarian Nordic to cross-verify your projections.Bavarian Nordic Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bavarian Nordic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bavarian Nordic's future price movements. Getting to know how Bavarian Nordic's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bavarian Nordic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BRCTF | BioArctic AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 2.65 | 0.00 | 13.50 | |
| MEOBF | Mesoblast | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 57.06 | |
| HAWPY | Haw Par | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.48 | |
| ALFRY | Alfresa Holdings Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.66 | |
| VRBCF | Virbac SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GLPGF | Galapagos NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.46 | |
| HAWPF | Haw Par | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.73 | |
| HBMHF | HBM Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TLPPF | Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.74 | (6.41) | 19.70 | |
| GENSF | Genus plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bavarian Nordic
For every potential investor in Bavarian, whether a beginner or expert, Bavarian Nordic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bavarian Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bavarian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bavarian Nordic's price trends.Bavarian Nordic Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bavarian Nordic pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bavarian Nordic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bavarian Nordic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bavarian Nordic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bavarian Nordic pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bavarian Nordic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bavarian Nordic pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Bavarian Nordic AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.36 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (10.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
Bavarian Nordic Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bavarian Nordic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bavarian Nordic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bavarian pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Variance | 8.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bavarian Nordic
The number of cover stories for Bavarian Nordic depends on current market conditions and Bavarian Nordic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bavarian Nordic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bavarian Nordic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bavarian Nordic Short Properties
Bavarian Nordic's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bavarian Nordic's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bavarian Nordic AS often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bavarian Nordic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bavarian Nordic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 162.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.7 B |
Additional Tools for Bavarian Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Bavarian Nordic's price analysis, check to measure Bavarian Nordic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bavarian Nordic is operating at the current time. Most of Bavarian Nordic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bavarian Nordic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bavarian Nordic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bavarian Nordic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.