Broadway Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BYFC Stock | USD 8.42 0.13 1.57% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Broadway Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 8.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.49. Broadway Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Broadway Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Broadway Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Broadway Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Broadway Financial's stock price is about 64 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Broadway, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.088 |
Using Broadway Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Broadway Financial from the perspective of Broadway Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Broadway Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 8.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.49. Broadway Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 8.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Broadway Financial to cross-verify your projections. Broadway Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Broadway price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Broadway using various technical indicators. When you analyze Broadway charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Broadway Financial Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Broadway Financial's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1996-03-31 | Previous Quarter 2 M | Current Value 29.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 49.7 M |
Broadway Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Broadway Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 8.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Broadway Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Broadway Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Broadway Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Broadway Financial | Broadway Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Broadway Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Broadway Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Broadway Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.92 and 12.20, respectively. We have considered Broadway Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Broadway Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Broadway Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4662 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2498 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0378 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.4876 |
Predictive Modules for Broadway Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Broadway Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Broadway Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Broadway Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Broadway Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Broadway Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Broadway Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Broadway Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Broadway Financial's historical news coverage. Broadway Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.50 and 12.78, respectively. We have considered Broadway Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Broadway Financial is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Broadway Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Broadway Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Broadway Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Broadway Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Broadway Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 4.14 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.42 | 8.64 | 2.61 |
|
Broadway Financial Hype Timeline
Broadway Financial is currently traded for 8.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Broadway is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 8.64 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 2.61%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Broadway Financial is about 2156.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.53. Broadway Financial currently holds 262.14 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 7.73, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Broadway Financial to cross-verify your projections.Broadway Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Broadway Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Broadway Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Broadway Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Broadway Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FSEA | First Seacoast Bancorp | 0.30 | 4 per month | 2.01 | 0.03 | 4.23 | (3.38) | 25.19 | |
| CLST | Catalyst Bancorp | 0.19 | 26 per month | 0.66 | 0.13 | 1.90 | (1.08) | 7.82 | |
| CASH | Meta Financial Group | 0.30 | 8 per month | 1.09 | 0.05 | 2.96 | (1.75) | 5.74 | |
| NSTS | NSTS Bancorp | 0.30 | 12 per month | 0.60 | 0.10 | 2.00 | (1.43) | 7.95 | |
| HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp | 0.05 | 7 per month | 3.09 | 0.09 | 6.73 | (3.72) | 21.76 | |
| ASRV | AmeriServ Financial | 0.30 | 16 per month | 1.85 | 0.03 | 2.92 | (3.13) | 8.63 | |
| OPHC | OptimumBank Holdings | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.76 | 0.13 | 2.19 | (1.99) | 8.83 | |
| PBBK | PB Bankshares | 0.19 | 10 per month | 1.51 | (0.04) | 2.40 | (2.53) | 10.19 | |
| TCBS | Texas Community Bancshares | 0.30 | 4 per month | 1.25 | (0.04) | 2.03 | (2.22) | 12.58 | |
| STLE | Stylesite Marketing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Broadway Financial
For every potential investor in Broadway, whether a beginner or expert, Broadway Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Broadway Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Broadway. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Broadway Financial's price trends.Broadway Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Broadway Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Broadway Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Broadway Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Broadway Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Broadway Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Broadway Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Broadway Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Broadway Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Broadway Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Broadway Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Broadway Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting broadway stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Variance | 14.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Broadway Financial
The number of cover stories for Broadway Financial depends on current market conditions and Broadway Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Broadway Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Broadway Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Broadway Financial Short Properties
Broadway Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Broadway Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Broadway Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Broadway Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Broadway Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 146.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Broadway Financial to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Broadway Stock refer to our How to Trade Broadway Stock guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Broadway Financial. If investors know Broadway will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Broadway Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (0.29) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.088 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Broadway Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Broadway that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Broadway Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Broadway Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Broadway Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Broadway Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Broadway Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Broadway Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Broadway Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.