Beazer Homes Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BZH Stock | USD 33.03 0.37 1.13% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Beazer Homes USA on the next trading day is expected to be 32.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.53. Beazer Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Beazer Homes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Beazer |
Beazer Homes Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Beazer Homes' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1993-09-30 | Previous Quarter 73.2 M | Current Value 203.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 159.7 M |
Beazer Homes Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Beazer Homes USA on the next trading day is expected to be 32.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Beazer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Beazer Homes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Beazer Homes Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Beazer Homes | Beazer Homes Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Beazer Homes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Beazer Homes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Beazer Homes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.80 and 34.43, respectively. We have considered Beazer Homes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Beazer Homes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Beazer Homes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4345 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6375 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.5252 |
Predictive Modules for Beazer Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Beazer Homes USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Beazer Homes
For every potential investor in Beazer, whether a beginner or expert, Beazer Homes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Beazer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Beazer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Beazer Homes' price trends.Beazer Homes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Beazer Homes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Beazer Homes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Beazer Homes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Beazer Homes USA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Beazer Homes' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Beazer Homes' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Beazer Homes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Beazer Homes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Beazer Homes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Beazer Homes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Beazer Homes USA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5078.76 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4568 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 33.08 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 33.06 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.14 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.37 |
Beazer Homes Risk Indicators
The analysis of Beazer Homes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Beazer Homes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting beazer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Variance | 5.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.42 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Beazer Homes USA offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Beazer Homes' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Beazer Homes Usa Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Beazer Homes Usa Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Beazer Homes to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Beazer Homes. If investors know Beazer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Beazer Homes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | Earnings Share 4.53 | Revenue Per Share 70.965 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.04 | Return On Assets 0.0374 |
The market value of Beazer Homes USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Beazer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Beazer Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Beazer Homes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Beazer Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Beazer Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Beazer Homes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Beazer Homes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Beazer Homes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.