China Automotive Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CAAS Stock | USD 4.58 0.11 2.35% |
China Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of China Automotive's share price is at 54 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling China Automotive, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.057 | Wall Street Target Price 7.5 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.111 |
Using China Automotive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Automotive Systems from the perspective of China Automotive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards China Automotive using China Automotive's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards China using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of China Automotive's stock price.
China Automotive Implied Volatility | 1.9 |
China Automotive's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of China Automotive Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if China Automotive's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that China Automotive stock will not fluctuate a lot when China Automotive's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Automotive Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 4.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.12. China Automotive after-hype prediction price | USD 4.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Automotive to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 China Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast China Automotive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in China Automotive's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for China Automotive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current China Automotive's open interest, investors have to compare it to China Automotive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of China Automotive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in China. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
China Automotive Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the China Automotive's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2001-09-30 | Previous Quarter 178.7 M | Current Value 139.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 37.2 M |
China Automotive Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Automotive Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 4.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
China Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest China Automotive | China Automotive Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
China Automotive Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting China Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.64 and 6.62, respectively. We have considered China Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2713 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0675 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0156 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.1152 |
Predictive Modules for China Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Automotive Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China Automotive After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of China Automotive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Automotive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of China Automotive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
China Automotive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting China Automotive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Automotive's historical news coverage. China Automotive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.73 and 6.71, respectively. We have considered China Automotive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
China Automotive is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Automotive Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
China Automotive Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as China Automotive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Automotive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Automotive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.99 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.58 | 4.72 | 0.64 |
|
China Automotive Hype Timeline
China Automotive Systems is currently traded for 4.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. China is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.72 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.64%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on China Automotive is about 12792.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.58. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 650.93 M. Net Income was 37.9 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 113.51 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Automotive to cross-verify your projections.China Automotive Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to China Automotive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Automotive's future price movements. Getting to know how China Automotive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Automotive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CJET | Chijet Motor Company | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 16.08 | (20.45) | 67.86 | |
| FFAI | Faraday Future Intelligent | (0.06) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 8.11 | (8.11) | 20.97 | |
| VRM | Vroom Common Stock | (0.54) | 28 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 10.29 | (7.54) | 22.81 | |
| CLAR | Clarus Corp | (0.04) | 4 per month | 2.29 | 0.03 | 3.66 | (3.78) | 18.58 | |
| MAMO | Massimo Group Common | 0.16 | 9 per month | 6.66 | 0.06 | 8.86 | (7.89) | 38.09 | |
| LIDR | Aeye Inc | 0.10 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 7.11 | (7.08) | 19.19 | |
| KNDI | Kandi Technologies Group | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.16 | (5.10) | 19.77 | |
| PLBY | Plby Group | (0.02) | 11 per month | 4.16 | 0.07 | 6.43 | (7.10) | 33.37 | |
| AKA | AKA Brands Holding | 0.33 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.64 | (5.73) | 22.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for China Automotive
For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Automotive's price trends.China Automotive Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
China Automotive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Automotive Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
China Automotive Risk Indicators
The analysis of China Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for China Automotive
The number of cover stories for China Automotive depends on current market conditions and China Automotive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Automotive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Automotive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
China Automotive Short Properties
China Automotive's future price predictability will typically decrease when China Automotive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of China Automotive Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential China Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 84.5 M |
Additional Tools for China Stock Analysis
When running China Automotive's price analysis, check to measure China Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of China Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.