Crossamerica Partners Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CAPL Stock | USD 20.22 0.28 1.40% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crossamerica Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 20.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.79. Crossamerica Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Crossamerica Partners' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Crossamerica Partners' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Crossamerica Partners fundamentals over time.
Crossamerica |
Crossamerica Partners Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crossamerica Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 20.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Crossamerica Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Crossamerica Partners' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Crossamerica Partners Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Crossamerica Partners | Crossamerica Partners Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Crossamerica Partners Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Crossamerica Partners' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Crossamerica Partners' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.80 and 21.65, respectively. We have considered Crossamerica Partners' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Crossamerica Partners stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Crossamerica Partners stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0482 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2298 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0113 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.7881 |
Predictive Modules for Crossamerica Partners
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crossamerica Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Crossamerica Partners
For every potential investor in Crossamerica, whether a beginner or expert, Crossamerica Partners' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Crossamerica Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Crossamerica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Crossamerica Partners' price trends.Crossamerica Partners Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Crossamerica Partners stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Crossamerica Partners could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Crossamerica Partners by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Crossamerica Partners Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Crossamerica Partners' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Crossamerica Partners' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Crossamerica Partners Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Crossamerica Partners stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Crossamerica Partners shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Crossamerica Partners stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Crossamerica Partners LP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Crossamerica Partners Risk Indicators
The analysis of Crossamerica Partners' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Crossamerica Partners' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting crossamerica stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Variance | 2.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crossamerica Partners to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Crossamerica Partners. If investors know Crossamerica will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Crossamerica Partners listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Dividend Share 2.1 | Earnings Share 0.52 | Revenue Per Share 101.473 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
The market value of Crossamerica Partners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Crossamerica that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Crossamerica Partners' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Crossamerica Partners' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Crossamerica Partners' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Crossamerica Partners' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Crossamerica Partners' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Crossamerica Partners is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Crossamerica Partners' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.