CBAK Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CBAT Stock | USD 0.84 0.01 1.18% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CBAK Energy Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 0.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.88. CBAK Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of CBAK Energy's share price is approaching 42 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CBAK Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CBAK Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CBAK Energy Technology from the perspective of CBAK Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CBAK Energy Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 0.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.88. CBAK Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 0.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CBAK Energy to cross-verify your projections. CBAK Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CBAK price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CBAK using various technical indicators. When you analyze CBAK charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CBAK Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CBAK Energy Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 0.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CBAK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CBAK Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CBAK Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CBAK Energy | CBAK Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CBAK Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CBAK Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CBAK Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 3.02, respectively. We have considered CBAK Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CBAK Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CBAK Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.0758 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0145 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8836 |
Predictive Modules for CBAK Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CBAK Energy Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CBAK Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CBAK Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CBAK Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CBAK Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CBAK Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CBAK Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CBAK Energy's historical news coverage. CBAK Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 3.02, respectively. We have considered CBAK Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CBAK Energy is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CBAK Energy Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
CBAK Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CBAK Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CBAK Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CBAK Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.84 | 0.84 | 0.00 |
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CBAK Energy Hype Timeline
CBAK Energy Technology is currently traded for 0.84. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. CBAK is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on CBAK Energy is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.84. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.62. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CBAK Energy Technology recorded a loss per share of 0.07. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:5 split on the 26th of October 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CBAK Energy to cross-verify your projections.CBAK Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CBAK Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CBAK Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how CBAK Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CBAK Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OPTT | Ocean Power Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.89 | (8.82) | 36.47 | |
| RFIL | RF Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.32 | 0.12 | 10.00 | (3.94) | 16.73 | |
| DFLI | Chardan NexTech Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 13.98 | (17.43) | 58.61 | |
| SUGP | SU Group Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 17.52 | (9.68) | 43.26 | |
| XCH | XCHG Limited American | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 8.76 | (8.50) | 32.99 | |
| DHX | DHI Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.44 | (5.06) | 13.34 | |
| SDST | Stardust Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.54 | (0.01) | 8.84 | (9.77) | 26.43 | |
| FTEK | Fuel Tech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 6.45 | (6.13) | 19.15 | |
| SHIM | Shimmick Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.86 | 0.16 | 12.69 | (5.53) | 26.47 | |
| RYM | RYTHM Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 10.94 | (15.38) | 63.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for CBAK Energy
For every potential investor in CBAK, whether a beginner or expert, CBAK Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CBAK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CBAK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CBAK Energy's price trends.CBAK Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CBAK Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CBAK Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CBAK Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CBAK Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CBAK Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CBAK Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CBAK Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CBAK Energy Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CBAK Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of CBAK Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CBAK Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cbak stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CBAK Energy
The number of cover stories for CBAK Energy depends on current market conditions and CBAK Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CBAK Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CBAK Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CBAK Energy Short Properties
CBAK Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when CBAK Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CBAK Energy Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CBAK Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CBAK Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 90.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11 M |
Additional Tools for CBAK Stock Analysis
When running CBAK Energy's price analysis, check to measure CBAK Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CBAK Energy is operating at the current time. Most of CBAK Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CBAK Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CBAK Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CBAK Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.