Constellation Energy Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CEG Stock | USD 261.42 14.36 5.81% |
Constellation Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Constellation Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 8th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Constellation Energy's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.3306 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.3654 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.4635 | Wall Street Target Price 400.46 |
Using Constellation Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Constellation Energy Corp from the perspective of Constellation Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Constellation Energy using Constellation Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Constellation using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Constellation Energy's stock price.
Constellation Energy Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Constellation Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Constellation. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Constellation Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 324.7418 | Short Percent 0.0225 | Short Ratio 2.74 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.2 M | 50 Day MA 332.2418 |
Constellation Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Constellation Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 252.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 466.14.Constellation Energy Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Constellation Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Constellation. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Constellation can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Constellation Energy Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Constellation Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Constellation Energy.
Constellation Energy Implied Volatility | 0.59 |
Constellation Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Constellation Energy Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Constellation Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Constellation Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Constellation Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Constellation Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 252.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 466.14. Constellation Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 261.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Constellation | Build AI portfolio with Constellation Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Constellation contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Constellation Energy Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0369% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Constellation Energy trading at USD 261.42, that is roughly USD 0.0964 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Constellation Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Constellation Energy Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.59%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Constellation Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Constellation Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Constellation Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Constellation Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Constellation Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Constellation Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Constellation Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Constellation. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Constellation Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Constellation price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Constellation using various technical indicators. When you analyze Constellation charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Constellation Energy Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Constellation Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 252.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.90, mean absolute percentage error of 106.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 466.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Constellation Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Constellation Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Constellation Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Constellation Energy | Constellation Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Constellation Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Constellation Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Constellation Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 249.81 and 256.17, respectively. We have considered Constellation Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Constellation Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Constellation Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.8611 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.9007 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0244 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 466.1421 |
Predictive Modules for Constellation Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Constellation Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Constellation Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Constellation Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Constellation Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Constellation Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Constellation Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Constellation Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Constellation Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Constellation Energy's historical news coverage. Constellation Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 258.17 and 264.57, respectively. We have considered Constellation Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Constellation Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Constellation Energy Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Constellation Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Constellation Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Constellation Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Constellation Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 3.18 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 21 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 21 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
261.42 | 261.37 | 0.02 |
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Constellation Energy Hype Timeline
On the 8th of February Constellation Energy Corp is traded for 261.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.37. Constellation is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 261.37. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Constellation Energy is about 408.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 261.79. About 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.73. Constellation Energy Corp last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the May 18, 1992. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 21 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Constellation Energy to cross-verify your projections.Constellation Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Constellation Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Constellation Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Constellation Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Constellation Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SO | Southern Company | 0.71 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.10 | (1.81) | 4.07 | |
| DUK | Duke Energy | (1.97) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.27 | (1.39) | 4.59 | |
| GEV | GE Vernova LLC | 9.87 | 8 per month | 3.01 | 0.11 | 5.67 | (5.12) | 26.12 | |
| NGG | National Grid PLC | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.63 | 0.18 | 1.91 | (1.10) | 4.11 | |
| SRE | Sempra Energy | (0.37) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.52 | (2.76) | 6.43 | |
| NEE | Nextera Energy | (0.40) | 10 per month | 1.13 | 0.05 | 2.05 | (1.90) | 5.66 | |
| VST | Vistra Energy Corp | 0.93 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.60 | (6.85) | 18.01 | |
| CWEN | Clearway Energy Class | (0.19) | 29 per month | 1.26 | 0.11 | 2.82 | (2.65) | 11.49 | |
| AEP | American Electric Power | (1.65) | 9 per month | 0.95 | (0.06) | 1.73 | (1.51) | 4.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Constellation Energy
For every potential investor in Constellation, whether a beginner or expert, Constellation Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Constellation Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Constellation. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Constellation Energy's price trends.Constellation Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Constellation Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Constellation Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Constellation Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Constellation Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Constellation Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Constellation Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Constellation Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Constellation Energy Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0439 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.240069 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 258.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 259.25 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 11.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 10.43 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 14.36 |
Constellation Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Constellation Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Constellation Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting constellation stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Variance | 9.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Constellation Energy
The number of cover stories for Constellation Energy depends on current market conditions and Constellation Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Constellation Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Constellation Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Constellation Energy Short Properties
Constellation Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Constellation Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Constellation Energy Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Constellation Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Constellation Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 315 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Constellation Energy to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Can Electric Utilities industry sustain growth momentum? Does Constellation have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Constellation Energy. Projected growth potential of Constellation fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Constellation Energy demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 1.516 | Earnings Share 8.73 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.003 |
Investors evaluate Constellation Energy Corp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Constellation Energy's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Constellation Energy's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Constellation Energy's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Constellation Energy should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Constellation Energy's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.