Central Garden Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CENT Stock | USD 32.31 0.51 1.60% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Garden Pet on the next trading day is expected to be 32.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.40. Central Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Central Garden's share price is approaching 48 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Central Garden, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Central Garden hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Central Garden Pet from the perspective of Central Garden response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Garden Pet on the next trading day is expected to be 32.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.40. Central Garden after-hype prediction price | USD 32.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Garden to cross-verify your projections. Central Garden Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Central price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Central using various technical indicators. When you analyze Central charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Central Garden Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Central Garden Pet on the next trading day is expected to be 32.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Central Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Central Garden's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Central Garden Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Central Garden | Central Garden Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Central Garden Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Central Garden's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Central Garden's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.44 and 34.16, respectively. We have considered Central Garden's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Central Garden stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Central Garden stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1915 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0057 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.39 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.401 |
Predictive Modules for Central Garden
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Central Garden Pet. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Central Garden After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Central Garden at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Central Garden or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Central Garden, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Central Garden Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Central Garden's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Central Garden's historical news coverage. Central Garden's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.46 and 34.16, respectively. We have considered Central Garden's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Central Garden is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Central Garden Pet is based on 3 months time horizon.
Central Garden Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Central Garden is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Central Garden backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Central Garden, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.86 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
32.31 | 32.31 | 0.00 |
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Central Garden Hype Timeline
Central Garden Pet is currently traded for 32.31. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Central is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Central Garden is about 671.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.32. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.25. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Central Garden Pet has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.56. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1277:1000 split on the 9th of February 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Garden to cross-verify your projections.Central Garden Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Central Garden's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Central Garden's future price movements. Getting to know how Central Garden's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Central Garden may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NOMD | Nomad Foods | 0.20 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.82 | (2.18) | 8.79 | |
| JJSF | J J Snack | 0.29 | 30 per month | 1.50 | (0.02) | 2.79 | (2.71) | 9.28 | |
| SMPL | Simply Good Foods | 1.42 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.90 | (3.46) | 19.75 | |
| STRA | Strategic Education | (0.04) | 10 per month | 2.21 | 0.02 | 2.39 | (4.08) | 12.29 | |
| FDP | Fresh Del Monte | (0.04) | 16 per month | 1.53 | 0.06 | 2.19 | (2.57) | 8.48 | |
| PRDO | Perdoceo Education Corp | 0.12 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.71 | (3.17) | 12.03 | |
| ANDE | The Andersons | (0.04) | 9 per month | 1.35 | 0.15 | 4.37 | (2.24) | 7.65 | |
| WMK | Weis Markets | 0.34 | 8 per month | 1.29 | (0.07) | 2.23 | (2.09) | 7.02 | |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands | (0.04) | 17 per month | 1.50 | 0.15 | 4.03 | (3.17) | 10.86 | |
| FLO | Flowers Foods | 0.56 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.55 | (3.72) | 11.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for Central Garden
For every potential investor in Central, whether a beginner or expert, Central Garden's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Central Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Central. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Central Garden's price trends.Central Garden Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Central Garden stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Central Garden could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Central Garden by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Central Garden Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Central Garden stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Central Garden shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Central Garden stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Central Garden Pet entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Central Garden Risk Indicators
The analysis of Central Garden's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Central Garden's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting central stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Central Garden
The number of cover stories for Central Garden depends on current market conditions and Central Garden's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Central Garden is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Central Garden's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Central Stock Analysis
When running Central Garden's price analysis, check to measure Central Garden's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Central Garden is operating at the current time. Most of Central Garden's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Central Garden's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Central Garden's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Central Garden to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.