Turning Point Brands Stock Price Prediction
| TPB Stock | USD 57.58 1.12 1.98% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
57
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.178 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.73 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.285 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.48 | Wall Street Target Price 68.75 |
Using Turning Point hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Turning Point Brands from the perspective of Turning Point response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Turning Point using Turning Point's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Turning using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Turning Point's stock price.
Turning Point Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
Turning Point's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Turning Point Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Turning Point's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Turning Point stock will not fluctuate a lot when Turning Point's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Turning Point to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Turning because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Turning Point after-hype prediction price | USD 56.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Turning contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Turning Point Brands will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Turning Point trading at USD 57.58, that is roughly USD 0.0205 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Turning Point's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Turning Point Brands options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Turning |
Turning Point After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Turning Point at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Turning Point or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Turning Point, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Turning Point Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Turning Point's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Turning Point's historical news coverage. Turning Point's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.67 and 59.07, respectively. We have considered Turning Point's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Turning Point is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Turning Point Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
Turning Point Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Turning Point is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Turning Point backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Turning Point, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.50 | 2.18 | 0.70 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
57.58 | 56.87 | 1.23 |
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Turning Point Hype Timeline
On the 18th of January 2025 Turning Point Brands is traded for 57.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.7, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Turning is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 56.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 156.83%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.23%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.5%. The volatility of related hype on Turning Point is about 4037.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 57.61. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Turning Point Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Turning Point Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Turning Point's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Turning Point's future price movements. Getting to know how Turning Point's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Turning Point may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UVV | Universal | 0.36 | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.03 | 2.22 | (2.42) | 6.25 | |
| IMBBY | Imperial Brands PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | 0.1 | 2.38 | (1.43) | 4.92 | |
| BTI | British American Tobacco | (0.16) | 11 per month | 0.84 | 0.04 | 1.59 | (1.53) | 4.85 | |
| PM | Philip Morris International | 0.51 | 11 per month | 1.60 | 0.01 | 1.98 | (1.91) | 15.68 | |
| VGR | Vector Group | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.34 | 3.38 | (0.96) | 8.71 | |
| JAPAY | Japan Tobacco ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.93 | (1.55) | 6.83 | |
| IMBBF | Imperial Brands PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.88 | 0.01 | 5.50 | (5.19) | 12.91 | |
| JAPAF | Japan Tobacco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.70 | (7.07) | 26.00 | |
| BTAFF | British American Tobacco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.25 | 0.04 | 5.14 | (3.46) | 12.29 | |
| MO | Altria Group | (0.21) | 7 per month | 0.87 | 0.05 | 1.50 | (1.43) | 10.39 |
Turning Point Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Turning price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Turning using various technical indicators. When you analyze Turning charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Turning Point Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Turning Point stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Turning Point Brands, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Turning Point based on analysis of Turning Point hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Turning Point's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Turning Point's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.011 | 0.00972 | 0.008748 | 0.004963 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.93 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 1.02 |
Story Coverage note for Turning Point
The number of cover stories for Turning Point depends on current market conditions and Turning Point's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Turning Point is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Turning Point's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Turning Point Short Properties
Turning Point's future price predictability will typically decrease when Turning Point's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Turning Point Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Turning Point's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Turning Point's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 117.9 M |
Complementary Tools for Turning Stock analysis
When running Turning Point's price analysis, check to measure Turning Point's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Turning Point is operating at the current time. Most of Turning Point's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Turning Point's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Turning Point's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Turning Point to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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