CFSB Bancorp Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| CFSBDelisted Stock | USD 14.25 0.00 0.00% |
CFSB Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CFSB Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of CFSB Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of CFSB Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of CFSB Bancorp's stock price is about 61 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling CFSB, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CFSB Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CFSB Bancorp from the perspective of CFSB Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CFSB Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.11. CFSB Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 14.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CFSB |
CFSB Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CFSB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CFSB using various technical indicators. When you analyze CFSB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CFSB Bancorp Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CFSB Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CFSB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CFSB Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CFSB Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CFSB Bancorp | CFSB Bancorp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CFSB Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CFSB Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5687 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.051 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0036 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.1114 |
Predictive Modules for CFSB Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CFSB Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CFSB Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CFSB Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CFSB Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CFSB Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CFSB Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CFSB Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CFSB Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CFSB Bancorp's historical news coverage. CFSB Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.25 and 14.25, respectively. We have considered CFSB Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CFSB Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CFSB Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
CFSB Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CFSB Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CFSB Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CFSB Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 22 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 22 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.25 | 14.25 | 0.00 |
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CFSB Bancorp Hype Timeline
CFSB Bancorp is currently traded for 14.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. CFSB is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on CFSB Bancorp is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.25. About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.23. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CFSB Bancorp recorded a loss per share of 0.04. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 22 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.CFSB Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CFSB Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CFSB Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how CFSB Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CFSB Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WSBK | Winchester Bancorp Common | (0.12) | 2 per month | 0.46 | 0.16 | 1.75 | (1.09) | 7.47 | |
| PBHC | Pathfinder Bancorp | 0.1 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.06 | (3.40) | 10.87 | |
| AUBN | Auburn National Bancorporation | (0.27) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.68 | (4.38) | 17.69 | |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | (0.20) | 6 per month | 0.81 | 0.16 | 2.05 | (1.48) | 5.78 | |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp | 0.1 | 6 per month | 0.48 | 0.08 | 1.38 | (0.85) | 5.02 | |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.76 | 0 | 1.34 | (1.04) | 4.66 | |
| SSBI | Summit State Bank | (0.09) | 8 per month | 1.84 | 0.11 | 3.62 | (2.69) | 7.99 | |
| FDSB | Fifth District Bancorp | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.29 | 0.20 | 1.09 | (1.05) | 3.97 | |
| BSBK | Bogota Financial Corp | (0.03) | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.75 | (2.21) | 5.15 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | (0.1) | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.02 | 1.81 | (2.09) | 6.78 |
CFSB Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CFSB Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CFSB Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CFSB Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CFSB Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CFSB Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CFSB Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CFSB Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CFSB Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CFSB Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of CFSB Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CFSB Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cfsb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2593 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3155 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4658 | |||
| Variance | 0.217 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3246 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0995 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CFSB Bancorp
The number of cover stories for CFSB Bancorp depends on current market conditions and CFSB Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CFSB Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CFSB Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CFSB Bancorp Short Properties
CFSB Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when CFSB Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CFSB Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CFSB Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CFSB Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 24.7 M |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Other Consideration for investing in CFSB Stock
If you are still planning to invest in CFSB Bancorp check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the CFSB Bancorp's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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