Centerra Gold Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CG Stock | CAD 22.81 3.50 13.30% |
Centerra Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Centerra Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Centerra Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Centerra Gold fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of Centerra Gold's share price is at 55 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Centerra Gold, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 9.906 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2075 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.0382 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.68 | Wall Street Target Price 28.4047 |
Using Centerra Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Centerra Gold from the perspective of Centerra Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Centerra Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 22.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.93. Centerra Gold after-hype prediction price | CAD 22.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Centerra |
Centerra Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Centerra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Centerra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Centerra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Centerra Gold Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Centerra Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 22.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Centerra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Centerra Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Centerra Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Centerra Gold | Centerra Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Centerra Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Centerra Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Centerra Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.80 and 25.78, respectively. We have considered Centerra Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Centerra Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Centerra Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1364 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4395 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.93 |
Predictive Modules for Centerra Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Centerra Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Centerra Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Centerra Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Centerra Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Centerra Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Centerra Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Centerra Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Centerra Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Centerra Gold's historical news coverage. Centerra Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.92 and 25.90, respectively. We have considered Centerra Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Centerra Gold is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Centerra Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Centerra Gold Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Centerra Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Centerra Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Centerra Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.56 | 2.99 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.81 | 22.91 | 0.44 |
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Centerra Gold Hype Timeline
Centerra Gold is currently traded for 22.81on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Centerra is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.91 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.44%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.56%. The volatility of related hype on Centerra Gold is about 2006.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.89. The company reported the revenue of 1.21 B. Net Income was 80.39 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 478.37 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Centerra Gold to cross-verify your projections.Centerra Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Centerra Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Centerra Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Centerra Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Centerra Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WDO | Wesdome Gold Mines | (0.64) | 2 per month | 2.79 | 0.04 | 3.95 | (4.49) | 14.33 | |
| SEA | Seabridge Gold | 0.84 | 8 per month | 3.90 | 0.08 | 5.83 | (5.70) | 19.48 | |
| FVI | Fortuna Silver Mines | 0.44 | 5 per month | 2.92 | 0.08 | 4.66 | (3.60) | 14.04 | |
| MX | Methanex | 0.39 | 8 per month | 1.49 | 0.16 | 3.91 | (2.65) | 21.67 | |
| KNT | K92 Mining | (0.64) | 4 per month | 2.21 | 0.22 | 4.25 | (3.60) | 9.36 | |
| PPTA | Perpetua Resources Corp | 0.71 | 4 per month | 4.73 | 0.02 | 7.44 | (7.13) | 20.89 | |
| AAUC | Allied Gold | 0.03 | 8 per month | 2.70 | 0.27 | 6.26 | (4.66) | 15.55 | |
| EDR | Endeavour Silver Corp | 0.43 | 10 per month | 4.03 | 0.10 | 9.39 | (5.64) | 18.36 | |
| USA | Americas Silver Corp | (0.38) | 8 per month | 4.14 | 0.19 | 8.70 | (6.70) | 25.44 | |
| MAU | Montage Gold Corp | 0.31 | 8 per month | 2.22 | 0.27 | 6.95 | (3.31) | 15.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Centerra Gold
For every potential investor in Centerra, whether a beginner or expert, Centerra Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Centerra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Centerra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Centerra Gold's price trends.Centerra Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Centerra Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Centerra Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Centerra Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Centerra Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Centerra Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Centerra Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Centerra Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Centerra Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Centerra Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Centerra Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Centerra Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting centerra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Variance | 8.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Centerra Gold
The number of cover stories for Centerra Gold depends on current market conditions and Centerra Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Centerra Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Centerra Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Centerra Gold Short Properties
Centerra Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Centerra Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Centerra Gold often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Centerra Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Centerra Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 216.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 628.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Centerra Gold to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Centerra Stock, please use our How to Invest in Centerra Gold guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.