Carlyle Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| CGABL Stock | USD 17.71 0.03 0.17% |
Carlyle Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Carlyle's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Carlyle's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Carlyle fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength indicator of Carlyle's share price is at 57 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Carlyle, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Carlyle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Carlyle Group from the perspective of Carlyle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of The Carlyle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 17.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.94. Carlyle after-hype prediction price | USD 18.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlyle to cross-verify your projections. Carlyle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carlyle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carlyle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carlyle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Carlyle Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of The Carlyle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 17.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Carlyle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Carlyle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Carlyle Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Carlyle | Carlyle Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Carlyle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Carlyle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Carlyle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.01 and 18.01, respectively. We have considered Carlyle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carlyle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carlyle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4968 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1443 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.944 |
Predictive Modules for Carlyle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carlyle Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Carlyle After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Carlyle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carlyle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Carlyle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Carlyle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Carlyle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carlyle's historical news coverage. Carlyle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.64 and 18.64, respectively. We have considered Carlyle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Carlyle is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carlyle Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Carlyle Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carlyle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carlyle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carlyle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.03 | 29 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 29 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.71 | 18.14 | 2.43 |
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Carlyle Hype Timeline
Carlyle Group is currently traded for 17.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Carlyle is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.14 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 5.81%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 2.43%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Carlyle is about 81.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.68. The Carlyle Group has accumulated 16.76 B in total debt. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 29 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlyle to cross-verify your projections.Carlyle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Carlyle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carlyle's future price movements. Getting to know how Carlyle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carlyle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OBDC | Blue Owl Capital | 0.43 | 9 per month | 1.59 | (0.05) | 2.50 | (2.94) | 8.33 | |
| OMF | OneMain Holdings | 0.76 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.75 | (2.88) | 10.41 | |
| SLM | SLM Corp | (1.20) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.74 | (3.41) | 18.60 | |
| FCFS | FirstCash | 0.02 | 26 per month | 1.57 | 0.09 | 2.56 | (2.65) | 7.55 | |
| SYF | Synchrony Financial | (1.29) | 10 per month | 2.42 | (0.02) | 2.67 | (3.59) | 12.73 | |
| CACC | Credit Acceptance | (13.01) | 9 per month | 2.24 | 0.05 | 3.16 | (3.93) | 15.42 | |
| IX | Orix Corp Ads | 0.36 | 5 per month | 0.88 | 0.27 | 2.44 | (1.66) | 8.51 | |
| JSM | Navient SR | (0.18) | 7 per month | 0.47 | (0.01) | 0.93 | (0.81) | 3.25 | |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings | 8.60 | 8 per month | 1.54 | 0.0005 | 3.55 | (2.91) | 9.14 |
Other Forecasting Options for Carlyle
For every potential investor in Carlyle, whether a beginner or expert, Carlyle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Carlyle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Carlyle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Carlyle's price trends.Carlyle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Carlyle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Carlyle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carlyle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Carlyle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Carlyle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Carlyle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Carlyle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Carlyle Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Carlyle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Carlyle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Carlyle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carlyle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3768 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4007 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4949 | |||
| Variance | 0.245 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.231 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1605 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Carlyle
The number of cover stories for Carlyle depends on current market conditions and Carlyle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carlyle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carlyle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Carlyle Short Properties
Carlyle's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carlyle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Carlyle Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carlyle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carlyle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 368 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 503 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlyle to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Investment Banking & Brokerage space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carlyle. Projected growth potential of Carlyle fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Carlyle assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Carlyle Group's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Carlyle's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Carlyle's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Carlyle's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Carlyle's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Carlyle should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Carlyle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.