Chagee Holdings Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CHA Stock | USD 12.18 0.01 0.08% |
Chagee Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Chagee Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Chagee Holdings Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Chagee Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Chagee Holdings' share price is approaching 44 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Chagee Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.3384 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.2563 | Wall Street Target Price 27.0806 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.102 |
Using Chagee Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chagee Holdings Limited from the perspective of Chagee Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Chagee Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chagee Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 12.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.50.Chagee Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Chagee Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Chagee. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Chagee can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Chagee Holdings Limited. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Chagee Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Chagee Holdings.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chagee Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 12.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.50. Chagee Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 12.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chagee Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Chagee Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chagee price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chagee using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chagee charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chagee Holdings Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chagee Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 12.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chagee Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chagee Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chagee Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Chagee Holdings | Chagee Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Chagee Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chagee Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chagee Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.90 and 15.39, respectively. We have considered Chagee Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chagee Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chagee Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0724 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3417 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0259 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.5029 |
Predictive Modules for Chagee Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chagee Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chagee Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Chagee Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chagee Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chagee Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chagee Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Chagee Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chagee Holdings' historical news coverage. Chagee Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.96 and 15.40, respectively. We have considered Chagee Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Chagee Holdings is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chagee Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Chagee Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chagee Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chagee Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chagee Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 3.24 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.18 | 12.18 | 0.00 |
|
Chagee Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Chagee Holdings is traded for 12.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. Chagee is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Chagee Holdings is about 523.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.33. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Chagee Holdings was currently reported as 47.32. The company last dividend was issued on the 29th of May 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chagee Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Chagee Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chagee Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chagee Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Chagee Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chagee Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CCU | Compania Cervecerias Unidas | (0.24) | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.17 | 2.62 | (2.23) | 9.52 | |
| COCO | Vita Coco | (0.26) | 11 per month | 1.93 | 0.18 | 4.79 | (3.36) | 13.15 | |
| SAM | Boston Beer | (0.21) | 2 per month | 1.99 | (0.03) | 3.11 | (3.36) | 10.23 | |
| FIZZ | National Beverage Corp | 0.43 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.99 | (3.05) | 7.83 | |
| FLO | Flowers Foods | 1.95 | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.55 | (3.72) | 11.13 | |
| CHEF | The Chefs Warehouse | (0.26) | 5 per month | 1.55 | 0.02 | 3.12 | (2.85) | 10.20 | |
| IPAR | Inter Parfums | 2.47 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.62 | (3.84) | 8.82 | |
| RLX | RLX Technology | (0.26) | 11 per month | 1.44 | 0.01 | 3.45 | (2.93) | 13.76 | |
| SMPL | Simply Good Foods | 1.95 | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.90 | (3.46) | 17.35 |
Other Forecasting Options for Chagee Holdings
For every potential investor in Chagee, whether a beginner or expert, Chagee Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chagee Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chagee. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chagee Holdings' price trends.Chagee Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chagee Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chagee Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chagee Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chagee Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chagee Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chagee Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chagee Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chagee Holdings Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9773.91 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.03 |
Chagee Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chagee Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chagee Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chagee stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.2 | |||
| Variance | 10.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Chagee Holdings
The number of cover stories for Chagee Holdings depends on current market conditions and Chagee Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chagee Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chagee Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Chagee Holdings Short Properties
Chagee Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Chagee Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Chagee Holdings Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chagee Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chagee Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 183.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chagee Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Restaurants space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chagee Holdings. If investors know Chagee will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chagee Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Earnings Share 0.75 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.102 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Chagee Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chagee that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chagee Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chagee Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chagee Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chagee Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chagee Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chagee Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chagee Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.