China Fund Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

CHN Fund  USD 11.58  0.33  2.77%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 11.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.47. China Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for China Fund is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of China Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

China Fund Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 11.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Fund's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China Fund Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest China FundChina Fund Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

China Fund Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China Fund's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Fund's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.33 and 14.15, respectively. We have considered China Fund's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.58
11.24
Expected Value
14.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Fund fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Fund fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9496
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4176
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.036
SAESum of the absolute errors25.4743
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of China Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict China Fund. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for China Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.0311.9114.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.0811.9614.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.8012.4513.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Fund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Fund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Fund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Fund.

Other Forecasting Options for China Fund

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Fund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Fund's price trends.

View China Fund Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Fund's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Fund's current price.

China Fund Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Fund fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Fund shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Fund fund market strength indicators, traders can identify China Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

China Fund Risk Indicators

The analysis of China Fund's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Fund's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with China Fund

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if China Fund position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in China Fund will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with China Fund

  0.64SMPIX Semiconductor UltrasectorPairCorr
  0.68SMPSX Semiconductor UltrasectorPairCorr
  0.87RSNRX Victory Global NaturalPairCorr
  0.87RSNYX Victory Global NaturalPairCorr
  0.64FIKGX Fidelity Advisor SemPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to China Fund could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace China Fund when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back China Fund - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling China Fund to buy it.
The correlation of China Fund is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as China Fund moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if China Fund moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for China Fund can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in China Fund

China Fund financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Fund security.
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