China Fund Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for China Fund is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of China Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

China Fund Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 11.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.47.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Fund fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Fund fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of China Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict China Fund. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for China Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 9.03 11.91 14.79 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 9.08 11.96 14.84 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 11.80 12.45 13.10 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Fund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Fund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Fund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Fund.

Other Forecasting Options for China Fund

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Fund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Fund's price trends.

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Risk & Return

Correlation

China Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Fund's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Fund's current price.

China Fund Market Strength Events

China Fund Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with China Fund

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if China Fund position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in China Fund will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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