Cheer Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| CHR Stock | 1.53 0.01 0.65% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Cheer Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 1.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.32. Cheer Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Cheer Holding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cheer Holding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cheer Holding fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Cheer Holding's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
Using Cheer Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cheer Holding from the perspective of Cheer Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Cheer Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cheer Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cheer. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cheer can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cheer Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Cheer Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 1.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.32.
Cheer Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 1.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cheer Holding to cross-verify your projections. Cheer Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cheer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cheer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cheer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cheer Holding Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Cheer Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 1.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cheer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cheer Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cheer Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cheer Holding | Cheer Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cheer Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cheer Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cheer Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 13.26, respectively. We have considered Cheer Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cheer Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cheer Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.296 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1221 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2426 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0908 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.315 |
Predictive Modules for Cheer Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cheer Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cheer Holding After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cheer Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cheer Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cheer Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cheer Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cheer Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cheer Holding's historical news coverage. Cheer Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 13.28, respectively. We have considered Cheer Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cheer Holding is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cheer Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cheer Holding Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cheer Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cheer Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cheer Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.59 | 11.73 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.53 | 1.55 | 1.31 |
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Cheer Holding Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Cheer Holding is traded for 1.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Cheer is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 1.31%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.59%. The volatility of related hype on Cheer Holding is about 43987.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.49. The company reported the last year's revenue of 147.2 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 25.97 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 105.86 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cheer Holding to cross-verify your projections.Cheer Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cheer Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cheer Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Cheer Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cheer Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SWAG | Software Acquisition Group | (0.03) | 19 per month | 6.37 | 0.05 | 8.85 | (12.12) | 63.62 | |
| KUKE | Kuke Music Holding | (0.03) | 7 per month | 25.62 | 0.12 | 150.00 | (60.00) | 382.50 | |
| STFS | Star Fashion Culture | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.69 | (13.33) | 59.82 | |
| ZNB | Zeta Network Group | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 8.54 | (10.17) | 90.82 | |
| CMLS | Cumulus Media Class | (0.01) | 4 per month | 11.16 | 0.02 | 30.00 | (17.02) | 70.57 | |
| ADV | Advantage Solutions | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.67 | (6.82) | 22.81 | |
| MOBQ | Mobiquity Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 14.29 | (10.59) | 38.78 | |
| ONFO | Onfolio Holdings | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 11.69 | (8.11) | 35.69 | |
| BZFD | BuzzFeed | (0.21) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 6.67 | (7.14) | 39.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cheer Holding
For every potential investor in Cheer, whether a beginner or expert, Cheer Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cheer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cheer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cheer Holding's price trends.Cheer Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cheer Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cheer Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cheer Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cheer Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cheer Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cheer Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cheer Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cheer Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cheer Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cheer Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cheer Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cheer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 11.45 | |||
| Variance | 131.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cheer Holding
The number of cover stories for Cheer Holding depends on current market conditions and Cheer Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cheer Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cheer Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cheer Holding Short Properties
Cheer Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cheer Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cheer Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cheer Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cheer Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 206.5 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 197.7 M |
Additional Tools for Cheer Stock Analysis
When running Cheer Holding's price analysis, check to measure Cheer Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cheer Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Cheer Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cheer Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cheer Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cheer Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.