China Mengniu Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CIADY Stock | USD 22.02 0.07 0.32% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Mengniu Dairy on the next trading day is expected to be 21.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.79. China Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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China Mengniu Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Mengniu Dairy on the next trading day is expected to be 21.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Mengniu's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
China Mengniu Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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China Mengniu Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting China Mengniu's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Mengniu's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.83 and 27.11, respectively. We have considered China Mengniu's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Mengniu pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Mengniu pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0376 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8609 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.039 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.7908 |
Predictive Modules for China Mengniu
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Mengniu Dairy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Mengniu's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for China Mengniu
For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Mengniu's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Mengniu's price trends.View China Mengniu Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
China Mengniu Dairy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Mengniu's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Mengniu's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
China Mengniu Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Mengniu pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Mengniu shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Mengniu pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify China Mengniu Dairy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
China Mengniu Risk Indicators
The analysis of China Mengniu's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Mengniu's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.23 | |||
| Variance | 27.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.84 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for China Pink Sheet Analysis
When running China Mengniu's price analysis, check to measure China Mengniu's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Mengniu is operating at the current time. Most of China Mengniu's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Mengniu's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Mengniu's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Mengniu to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.