Computer Modelling Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CMG Stock | CAD 4.55 0.29 5.99% |
Computer Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Computer Modelling's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Computer Modelling's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Computer Modelling fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Computer Modelling's share price is approaching 33 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Computer Modelling, making its price go up or down. Momentum 33
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0747 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.2189 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.275 | Wall Street Target Price 6.8929 |
Using Computer Modelling hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Computer Modelling Group from the perspective of Computer Modelling response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Computer Modelling Group on the next trading day is expected to be 4.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.19. Computer Modelling after-hype prediction price | CAD 4.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Computer |
Computer Modelling Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Computer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Computer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Computer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Computer Modelling Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Computer Modelling Group on the next trading day is expected to be 4.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Computer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Computer Modelling's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Computer Modelling Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Computer Modelling | Computer Modelling Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Computer Modelling Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Computer Modelling's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Computer Modelling's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.75 and 6.28, respectively. We have considered Computer Modelling's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Computer Modelling stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Computer Modelling stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.071 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0141 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.1889 |
Predictive Modules for Computer Modelling
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Computer Modelling. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Computer Modelling After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Computer Modelling at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Computer Modelling or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Computer Modelling, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Computer Modelling Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Computer Modelling's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Computer Modelling's historical news coverage. Computer Modelling's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.78 and 6.30, respectively. We have considered Computer Modelling's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Computer Modelling is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Computer Modelling is based on 3 months time horizon.
Computer Modelling Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Computer Modelling is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Computer Modelling backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Computer Modelling, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.76 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.55 | 4.54 | 0.22 |
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Computer Modelling Hype Timeline
Computer Modelling is currently traded for 4.55on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Computer is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.54. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Computer Modelling is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.55. About 59.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Computer Modelling was currently reported as 1.08. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. Computer Modelling had 2:1 split on the 3rd of July 2014. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Computer Modelling to cross-verify your projections.Computer Modelling Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Computer Modelling's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Computer Modelling's future price movements. Getting to know how Computer Modelling's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Computer Modelling may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BRK | Berkshire Hathaway CDR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.81 | (0.06) | 1.18 | (1.26) | 3.66 | |
| ELF-PH | E L Financial 3 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.72 | (0.82) | 3.20 | |
| FFH | Fairfax Financial Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.62 | (0.01) | 2.18 | (2.58) | 9.94 | |
| SEC | Senvest Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 0.70 | (1.62) | 9.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Computer Modelling
For every potential investor in Computer, whether a beginner or expert, Computer Modelling's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Computer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Computer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Computer Modelling's price trends.Computer Modelling Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Computer Modelling stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Computer Modelling could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Computer Modelling by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Computer Modelling Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Computer Modelling stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Computer Modelling shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Computer Modelling stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Computer Modelling Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Computer Modelling Risk Indicators
The analysis of Computer Modelling's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Computer Modelling's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting computer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.04 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Computer Modelling
The number of cover stories for Computer Modelling depends on current market conditions and Computer Modelling's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Computer Modelling is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Computer Modelling's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Computer Modelling Short Properties
Computer Modelling's future price predictability will typically decrease when Computer Modelling's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Computer Modelling Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Computer Modelling's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Computer Modelling's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 83.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 43.9 M |
Other Information on Investing in Computer Stock
Computer Modelling financial ratios help investors to determine whether Computer Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Computer with respect to the benefits of owning Computer Modelling security.