Cimpress Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CMPR Stock | USD 81.25 2.87 3.66% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cimpress NV on the next trading day is expected to be 78.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.38. Cimpress Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Cimpress |
Cimpress Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cimpress NV on the next trading day is expected to be 78.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.96, mean absolute percentage error of 6.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cimpress Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cimpress' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cimpress Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cimpress | Cimpress Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cimpress Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cimpress' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cimpress' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 75.95 and 81.61, respectively. We have considered Cimpress' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cimpress stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cimpress stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9249 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9571 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0242 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 119.3836 |
Predictive Modules for Cimpress
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cimpress NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Cimpress
For every potential investor in Cimpress, whether a beginner or expert, Cimpress' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cimpress Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cimpress. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cimpress' price trends.View Cimpress Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cimpress NV Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cimpress' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cimpress' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Cimpress Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cimpress stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cimpress shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cimpress stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cimpress NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cimpress Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cimpress' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cimpress' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cimpress stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Variance | 8.0 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Cimpress
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cimpress position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cimpress will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Cimpress Stock
| 0.71 | WPP | WPP PLC ADR | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | XNET | Xunlei Ltd Adr | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | CHR | Cheer Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | EVC | Entravision Communications | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | BOC | Boston Omaha Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cimpress could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cimpress when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cimpress - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cimpress NV to buy it.
The correlation of Cimpress is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cimpress moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cimpress NV moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cimpress can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Cimpress Stock Analysis
When running Cimpress' price analysis, check to measure Cimpress' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cimpress is operating at the current time. Most of Cimpress' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cimpress' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cimpress' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cimpress to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.