Collective Mining Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| CNL Stock | CAD 22.23 0.78 3.64% |
Collective Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Collective Mining's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Collective Mining's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Collective Mining fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Collective Mining's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.64) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.53) | Wall Street Target Price 30 |
Using Collective Mining hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Collective Mining from the perspective of Collective Mining response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Collective Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 22.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.32. Collective Mining after-hype prediction price | CAD 22.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Collective |
Collective Mining Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Collective price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Collective using various technical indicators. When you analyze Collective charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Collective Mining Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Collective Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 22.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 0.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Collective Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Collective Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Collective Mining Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Collective Mining | Collective Mining Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Collective Mining Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Collective Mining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Collective Mining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.85 and 26.93, respectively. We have considered Collective Mining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Collective Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Collective Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.092 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7102 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0349 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.3249 |
Predictive Modules for Collective Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Collective Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Collective Mining After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Collective Mining at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Collective Mining or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Collective Mining, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Collective Mining Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Collective Mining's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Collective Mining's historical news coverage. Collective Mining's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.65 and 26.73, respectively. We have considered Collective Mining's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Collective Mining is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Collective Mining is based on 3 months time horizon.
Collective Mining Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Collective Mining is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Collective Mining backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Collective Mining, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.68 | 4.04 | 0.46 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.23 | 22.69 | 2.07 |
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Collective Mining Hype Timeline
Collective Mining is currently traded for 22.23on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.46, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Collective is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.69 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 2.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.68%. The volatility of related hype on Collective Mining is about 8868.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.26. Collective Mining has accumulated 155.53 K in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 248.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Collective Mining to cross-verify your projections.Collective Mining Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Collective Mining's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Collective Mining's future price movements. Getting to know how Collective Mining's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Collective Mining may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MSA | Mineros SA | (0.03) | 8 per month | 3.02 | 0.17 | 5.56 | (5.02) | 17.75 | |
| RUP | Rupert Resources | 0.09 | 3 per month | 2.66 | 0.1 | 5.52 | (3.90) | 15.74 | |
| NDM | Northern Dynasty Minerals | 0.02 | 6 per month | 4.82 | 0.02 | 8.79 | (9.03) | 24.13 | |
| ASE | Asante Gold | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.18 | (7.22) | 17.05 | |
| SLS | Solaris Resources | 0.04 | 8 per month | 3.01 | 0.19 | 6.11 | (3.30) | 21.48 | |
| CFP | Canfor | 0.02 | 7 per month | 2.18 | 0.13 | 5.37 | (3.74) | 12.01 | |
| IAU | i 80 Gold Corp | 0.04 | 7 per month | 3.29 | 0.28 | 5.68 | (5.43) | 18.10 | |
| RBX | Res Robex | (0.31) | 4 per month | 3.26 | 0.13 | 6.04 | (6.41) | 16.72 | |
| MUX | McEwen Mining | 0.52 | 8 per month | 3.88 | 0.13 | 8.19 | (7.57) | 21.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Collective Mining
For every potential investor in Collective, whether a beginner or expert, Collective Mining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Collective Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Collective. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Collective Mining's price trends.Collective Mining Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Collective Mining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Collective Mining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Collective Mining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Collective Mining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Collective Mining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Collective Mining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Collective Mining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Collective Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Collective Mining Risk Indicators
The analysis of Collective Mining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Collective Mining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting collective stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.0 | |||
| Variance | 16.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Collective Mining
The number of cover stories for Collective Mining depends on current market conditions and Collective Mining's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Collective Mining is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Collective Mining's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Collective Mining Short Properties
Collective Mining's future price predictability will typically decrease when Collective Mining's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Collective Mining often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Collective Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Collective Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 68.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Collective Mining to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Collective Stock, please use our How to Invest in Collective Mining guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.