Compass Diversified Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CODI Stock | USD 6.10 0.34 5.90% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compass Diversified Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.23. Compass Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Compass Diversified's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 25th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Compass Diversified's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.28) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.70) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.00) | Wall Street Target Price 13.5 |
Using Compass Diversified hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Compass Diversified Holdings from the perspective of Compass Diversified response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Compass Diversified using Compass Diversified's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Compass using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Compass Diversified's stock price.
Compass Diversified Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Compass Diversified's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Compass. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Compass Diversified stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 7.6827 | Short Percent 0.0709 | Short Ratio 2.84 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.2 M | 50 Day MA 5.5694 |
Compass Diversified Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Compass Diversified's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Compass. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Compass can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Compass Diversified Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Compass Diversified Implied Volatility | 1.58 |
Compass Diversified's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Compass Diversified Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Compass Diversified's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Compass Diversified stock will not fluctuate a lot when Compass Diversified's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compass Diversified Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.23. Compass Diversified after-hype prediction price | USD 6.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Diversified to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Compass contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Compass Diversified Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0988% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Compass Diversified trading at USD 6.1, that is roughly USD 0.006024 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Compass Diversified's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Compass Diversified Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.58%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Compass Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Compass Diversified's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Compass Diversified's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Compass Diversified stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Compass Diversified's open interest, investors have to compare it to Compass Diversified's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Compass Diversified is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Compass. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Compass Diversified Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Compass price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Compass using various technical indicators. When you analyze Compass charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Compass Diversified Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Compass Diversified's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2004-12-31 | Previous Quarter 73.8 M | Current Value 61.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 84.3 M |
Compass Diversified Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compass Diversified Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compass Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compass Diversified's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Compass Diversified Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Compass Diversified | Compass Diversified Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Compass Diversified Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Compass Diversified's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Compass Diversified's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.39 and 11.09, respectively. We have considered Compass Diversified's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compass Diversified stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compass Diversified stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2369 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2989 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.051 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.2341 |
Predictive Modules for Compass Diversified
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Compass Diversified. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Compass Diversified's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Compass Diversified After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Compass Diversified at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Compass Diversified or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Compass Diversified, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Compass Diversified Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Compass Diversified's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Compass Diversified's historical news coverage. Compass Diversified's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.72 and 11.42, respectively. We have considered Compass Diversified's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Compass Diversified is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Compass Diversified is based on 3 months time horizon.
Compass Diversified Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Compass Diversified is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Compass Diversified backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Compass Diversified, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 5.35 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 15 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.10 | 6.07 | 0.49 |
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Compass Diversified Hype Timeline
Compass Diversified is currently traded for 6.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Compass is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.07. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.49%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Compass Diversified is about 1945.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.15. About 68.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.71. Compass Diversified recorded a loss per share of 0.56. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of April 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Diversified to cross-verify your projections.Compass Diversified Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Compass Diversified's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Compass Diversified's future price movements. Getting to know how Compass Diversified's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Compass Diversified may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FBYD | Falcons Beyond Global | 2.66 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 20.40 | (15.22) | 45.53 | |
| TRC | Tejon Ranch Co | 0.28 | 9 per month | 1.27 | (0.02) | 2.06 | (2.00) | 6.41 | |
| CYRX | Cryoport | (0.08) | 13 per month | 3.37 | (0.01) | 4.99 | (4.26) | 18.32 | |
| SB | Safe Bulkers | 0.05 | 12 per month | 1.03 | 0.15 | 3.34 | (1.72) | 13.45 | |
| KFRC | Kforce Inc | 0.06 | 6 per month | 1.80 | 0.09 | 3.64 | (3.00) | 32.43 | |
| EVTL | Vertical Aerospace | (0.15) | 9 per month | 5.01 | 0.05 | 9.38 | (6.45) | 32.52 | |
| BW | Babcock Wilcox Enterprises | 0.67 | 7 per month | 4.74 | 0.22 | 13.18 | (7.60) | 44.19 | |
| AIRO | AIRO Group Holdings | (0.16) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 10.18 | (11.39) | 23.45 | |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group | (0.50) | 19 per month | 1.80 | 0.11 | 4.95 | (2.57) | 9.41 | |
| FIP | FTAI Infrastructure | (0.08) | 3 per month | 3.76 | 0.02 | 7.16 | (6.73) | 18.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Compass Diversified
For every potential investor in Compass, whether a beginner or expert, Compass Diversified's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Compass Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Compass. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Compass Diversified's price trends.Compass Diversified Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Compass Diversified stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Compass Diversified could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Compass Diversified by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Compass Diversified Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Compass Diversified stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Compass Diversified shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Compass Diversified stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Compass Diversified Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Compass Diversified Risk Indicators
The analysis of Compass Diversified's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Compass Diversified's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting compass stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.46 | |||
| Variance | 29.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Compass Diversified
The number of cover stories for Compass Diversified depends on current market conditions and Compass Diversified's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Compass Diversified is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Compass Diversified's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Compass Diversified Short Properties
Compass Diversified's future price predictability will typically decrease when Compass Diversified's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Compass Diversified Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Compass Diversified's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Compass Diversified's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 75.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Diversified to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Multi-Sector Holdings space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Compass Diversified. If investors know Compass will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Compass Diversified listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | Dividend Share 0.75 | Earnings Share (0.56) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.035 |
The market value of Compass Diversified is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Compass that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Compass Diversified's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Compass Diversified's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Compass Diversified's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Compass Diversified's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Compass Diversified's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Compass Diversified is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Compass Diversified's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.