Cogent Biosciences Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| COGT Stock | USD 36.68 2.85 7.21% |
Cogent Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Cogent Biosciences' share price is at 57 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Cogent Biosciences, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Cogent Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cogent Biosciences from the perspective of Cogent Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cogent Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 37.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.97. Cogent Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 36.68 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cogent Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Cogent Stock please use our How to Invest in Cogent Biosciences guide.Cogent Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cogent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cogent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cogent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cogent Biosciences Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cogent Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 37.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.97, mean absolute percentage error of 7.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 119.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cogent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cogent Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cogent Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern
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Cogent Biosciences Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cogent Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cogent Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.68 and 52.53, respectively. We have considered Cogent Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cogent Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cogent Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.1237 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9667 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0751 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 119.9675 |
Predictive Modules for Cogent Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogent Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cogent Biosciences After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cogent Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cogent Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cogent Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cogent Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cogent Biosciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cogent Biosciences' historical news coverage. Cogent Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.26 and 52.10, respectively. We have considered Cogent Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cogent Biosciences is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cogent Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cogent Biosciences Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cogent Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cogent Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cogent Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.02 | 15.42 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
36.68 | 36.68 | 0.00 |
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Cogent Biosciences Hype Timeline
Cogent Biosciences is currently traded for 36.68. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Cogent is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 2.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cogent Biosciences is about 128500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.66. About 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.05. Cogent Biosciences last dividend was issued on the 9th of November 2020. The entity had 1:4 split on the 9th of November 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cogent Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Cogent Stock please use our How to Invest in Cogent Biosciences guide.Cogent Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cogent Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cogent Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Cogent Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cogent Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RCUS | Arcus Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.06 | 0.07 | 6.76 | (6.53) | 21.24 | |
| IBRX | Immunitybio | (0.04) | 3 per month | 4.16 | 0.20 | 11.16 | (7.49) | 51.87 | |
| DNLI | Denali Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.02 | 0.09 | 6.50 | (4.21) | 23.32 | |
| ETNB | 89bio Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (2.15) | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 | |
| GLPG | Galapagos NV ADR | (0.04) | 6 per month | 1.14 | 0.07 | 2.62 | (1.87) | 7.08 | |
| LQDA | Liquidia Technologies | (0.04) | 3 per month | 3.06 | 0.24 | 8.00 | (4.45) | 19.63 | |
| OCUL | Ocular Therapeutix | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.22 | (4.80) | 35.70 | |
| AGIO | Agios Pharm | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.99 | (3.94) | 56.88 | |
| VRDN | Viridian Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.21 | 5.57 | (2.19) | 15.86 | |
| RXRX | Recursion Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 7.59 | (6.19) | 17.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cogent Biosciences
For every potential investor in Cogent, whether a beginner or expert, Cogent Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cogent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cogent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cogent Biosciences' price trends.Cogent Biosciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cogent Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cogent Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cogent Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cogent Biosciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cogent Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cogent Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cogent Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cogent Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cogent Biosciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cogent Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cogent Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cogent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.81 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 15.42 | |||
| Variance | 237.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cogent Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Cogent Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Cogent Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cogent Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cogent Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cogent Biosciences Short Properties
Cogent Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cogent Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cogent Biosciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cogent Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogent Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 103.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 287.1 M |
Additional Tools for Cogent Stock Analysis
When running Cogent Biosciences' price analysis, check to measure Cogent Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cogent Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Cogent Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cogent Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cogent Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cogent Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.