Corpay Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CPAY Stock | 304.84 9.79 3.11% |
Corpay Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Corpay's share price is approaching 49 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Corpay, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.003 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.797 | EPS Estimate Current Year 21.2801 | EPS Estimate Next Year 24.7076 | Wall Street Target Price 361.2308 |
Using Corpay hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Corpay Inc from the perspective of Corpay response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Corpay using Corpay's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Corpay using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Corpay's stock price.
Corpay Short Interest
An investor who is long Corpay may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Corpay and may potentially protect profits, hedge Corpay with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 312.4804 | Short Percent 0.0367 | Short Ratio 4.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 309.1526 |
Corpay Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Corpay Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 304.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 284.93.Corpay Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Corpay's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Corpay. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Corpay can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Corpay Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Corpay's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Corpay.
Corpay Implied Volatility | 0.33 |
Corpay's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Corpay Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Corpay's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Corpay stock will not fluctuate a lot when Corpay's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Corpay Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 304.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 284.93. Corpay after-hype prediction price | USD 313.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Corpay to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Corpay contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Corpay Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0206% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Corpay trading at USD 304.84, that is roughly USD 0.0629 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Corpay's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Corpay Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Corpay Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Corpay's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Corpay's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Corpay stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Corpay's open interest, investors have to compare it to Corpay's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Corpay is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Corpay. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Corpay Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Corpay price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Corpay using various technical indicators. When you analyze Corpay charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Corpay Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Corpay Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 304.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.75, mean absolute percentage error of 38.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 284.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Corpay Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Corpay's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Corpay Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Corpay | Corpay Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Corpay Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Corpay's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Corpay's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 302.85 and 306.83, respectively. We have considered Corpay's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Corpay stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Corpay stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9256 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.7192 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.7488 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0156 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 284.93 |
Predictive Modules for Corpay
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Corpay Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Corpay After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Corpay at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Corpay or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Corpay, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Corpay Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Corpay's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Corpay's historical news coverage. Corpay's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 311.29 and 315.27, respectively. We have considered Corpay's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Corpay is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Corpay Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Corpay Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Corpay is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Corpay backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Corpay, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.99 | 1.35 | 0.09 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
304.84 | 313.28 | 0.43 |
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Corpay Hype Timeline
Corpay Inc is currently traded for 304.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.35, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Corpay is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 313.28. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 47.04%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.43%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Corpay is about 731.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 304.75. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.93. Corpay Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.38. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Corpay to cross-verify your projections.Corpay Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Corpay's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Corpay's future price movements. Getting to know how Corpay's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Corpay may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GDDY | Godaddy | (0.44) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.77 | (3.27) | 9.52 | |
| CHKP | Check Point Software | (2.57) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.18 | (2.74) | 9.86 | |
| NTNX | Nutanix | (1.66) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.18 | (5.55) | 21.74 | |
| GEN | Gen Digital | (0.49) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.03 | (3.23) | 7.70 | |
| IT | Gartner | (3.77) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 4.38 | (4.50) | 11.37 | |
| GIB | CGI Inc | 0.11 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.97 | (2.15) | 10.29 | |
| J | Jacobs Solutions | (1.74) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.18 | (2.47) | 11.86 | |
| FFIV | F5 Networks | 5.58 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.75 | (3.18) | 11.43 | |
| KSPI | Joint Stock | 1.46 | 9 per month | 1.57 | (0.02) | 3.31 | (2.58) | 8.44 | |
| TOST | Toast Inc | 0.80 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.14 | (4.25) | 16.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Corpay
For every potential investor in Corpay, whether a beginner or expert, Corpay's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Corpay Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Corpay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Corpay's price trends.Corpay Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Corpay stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Corpay could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Corpay by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Corpay Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Corpay stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Corpay shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Corpay stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Corpay Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0499 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.61) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 312.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 310.18 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 16.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (12.91) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (9.79) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.83 |
Corpay Risk Indicators
The analysis of Corpay's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Corpay's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting corpay stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Variance | 4.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Corpay
The number of cover stories for Corpay depends on current market conditions and Corpay's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Corpay is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Corpay's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Corpay Short Properties
Corpay's future price predictability will typically decrease when Corpay's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Corpay Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Corpay's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Corpay's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Additional Tools for Corpay Stock Analysis
When running Corpay's price analysis, check to measure Corpay's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Corpay is operating at the current time. Most of Corpay's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Corpay's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Corpay's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Corpay to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.