Toast Inc Stock Price Prediction
| TOST Stock | USD 38.80 0.92 2.43% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
56
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.6055 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.8761 | Wall Street Target Price 39.8539 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.265 |
Using Toast hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toast Inc from the perspective of Toast response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Toast using Toast's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Toast using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Toast's stock price.
Toast Short Interest
An investor who is long Toast may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Toast and may potentially protect profits, hedge Toast with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 28.7598 | Short Percent 0.0709 | Short Ratio 5.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 29.9 M | 50 Day MA 38.4788 |
Toast Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Toast's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Toast. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Toast can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Toast Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Toast's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Toast.
Toast Implied Volatility | 0.74 |
Toast's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toast Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toast's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toast stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toast's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Toast to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Toast because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Toast after-hype prediction price | USD 38.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Toast contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Toast Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0463% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Toast trading at USD 38.8, that is roughly USD 0.0179 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Toast's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Toast Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.74%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Toast |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toast's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Toast After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Toast at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toast or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Toast, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Toast Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Toast's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toast's historical news coverage. Toast's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 35.17 and 41.63, respectively. We have considered Toast's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Toast is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toast Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Toast Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Toast is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toast backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toast, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 3.23 | 0.69 | 0.12 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
38.80 | 38.40 | 1.77 |
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Toast Hype Timeline
Toast Inc is at this time traded for 38.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.69, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Toast is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 38.4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.77%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.44%. The volatility of related hype on Toast is about 1166.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 38.92. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.09. Toast Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Toast Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Toast Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Toast's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toast's future price movements. Getting to know how Toast's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toast may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | (1.95) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.59 | (3.61) | 11.36 | |
| ZS | Zscaler | (3.71) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.24 | (3.37) | 12.12 | |
| NET | Cloudflare | 1.49 | 8 per month | 1.89 | 0.13 | 5.23 | (2.66) | 15.25 | |
| OKTA | Okta Inc | (1.17) | 10 per month | 1.75 | 0.08 | 3.43 | (3.01) | 10.08 | |
| ADBE | Adobe Systems Incorporated | 5.46 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.74 | (3.06) | 18.04 | |
| SPLK | Splunk Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.70 | 0.07 | 4.36 | (3.33) | 10.70 | |
| CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings | 3.04 | 7 per month | 2.18 | 0.08 | 4.06 | (3.30) | 12.72 | |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Class | (0.40) | 4 per month | 2.59 | 0.18 | 8.54 | (4.97) | 31.28 | |
| PATH | Uipath Inc | 0.33 | 8 per month | 2.71 | 0.01 | 4.86 | (4.59) | 13.36 | |
| NTNX | Nutanix | (0.32) | 10 per month | 2.13 | 0 | 4.11 | (3.62) | 13.29 |
Toast Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Toast price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toast using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toast charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Toast Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Toast stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Toast Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Toast based on analysis of Toast hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Toast's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Toast's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 94.72 | 85.25 | 89.51 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 18.09 | 13.44 | 10.19 |
Story Coverage note for Toast
The number of cover stories for Toast depends on current market conditions and Toast's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Toast is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Toast's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Toast Short Properties
Toast's future price predictability will typically decrease when Toast's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Toast Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Toast's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toast's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 533 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Additional Tools for Toast Stock Analysis
When running Toast's price analysis, check to measure Toast's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toast is operating at the current time. Most of Toast's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toast's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toast's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toast to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.