Circle Internet Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CRCL Stock | USD 60.04 3.41 6.02% |
Circle Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Circle Internet's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Circle Internet's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Circle Internet fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Circle Internet's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Circle Internet hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Circle Internet Group from the perspective of Circle Internet response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Circle Internet using Circle Internet's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Circle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Circle Internet's stock price.
Circle Internet Short Interest
An investor who is long Circle Internet may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Circle Internet and may potentially protect profits, hedge Circle Internet with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 83.23 |
Circle Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Circle Internet Group on the next trading day is expected to be 60.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 182.11.Circle Internet Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Circle Internet's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Circle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Circle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Circle Internet Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Circle Internet's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Circle Internet.
Circle Internet Implied Volatility | 0.81 |
Circle Internet's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Circle Internet Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Circle Internet's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Circle Internet stock will not fluctuate a lot when Circle Internet's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Circle Internet Group on the next trading day is expected to be 60.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 182.11. Circle Internet after-hype prediction price | USD 59.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Circle Internet to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Circle contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Circle Internet Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0506% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Circle Internet trading at USD 60.04, that is roughly USD 0.0304 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Circle Internet's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Circle Internet Group options at the current volatility level of 0.81%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Circle Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Circle Internet's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Circle Internet's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Circle Internet stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Circle Internet's open interest, investors have to compare it to Circle Internet's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Circle Internet is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Circle. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Circle Internet Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Circle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Circle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Circle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Circle Internet Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Circle Internet Group on the next trading day is expected to be 60.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.09, mean absolute percentage error of 15.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 182.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Circle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Circle Internet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Circle Internet Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Circle Internet | Circle Internet Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Circle Internet Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Circle Internet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Circle Internet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.06 and 65.02, respectively. We have considered Circle Internet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Circle Internet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Circle Internet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1783 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3044 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0866 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0428 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 182.11 |
Predictive Modules for Circle Internet
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Circle Internet Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Circle Internet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Circle Internet After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Circle Internet at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Circle Internet or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Circle Internet, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Circle Internet Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Circle Internet's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Circle Internet's historical news coverage. Circle Internet's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.30 and 64.36, respectively. We have considered Circle Internet's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Circle Internet is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Circle Internet Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Circle Internet Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Circle Internet is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Circle Internet backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Circle Internet, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 4.98 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
60.04 | 59.33 | 1.18 |
|
Circle Internet Hype Timeline
Circle Internet Group is currently traded for 60.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. Circle is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 59.33. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.18%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Circle Internet is about 345.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 60.23. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Circle Internet Group had 18:1 split on the August 16, 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Circle Internet to cross-verify your projections.Circle Internet Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Circle Internet's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Circle Internet's future price movements. Getting to know how Circle Internet's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Circle Internet may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FUTU | Futu Holdings | (7.24) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 5.03 | (5.45) | 14.13 | |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | (2.65) | 5 per month | 1.71 | 0 | 2.55 | (2.54) | 10.66 | |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings | 8.11 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.82 | (4.27) | 11.75 | |
| RJF | Raymond James Financial | 7.58 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.28 | (2.30) | 11.78 | |
| IX | Orix Corp Ads | 0.36 | 5 per month | 0.62 | 0.34 | 3.36 | (1.62) | 7.42 | |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets | 8.55 | 8 per month | 1.43 | 0 | 3.15 | (2.43) | 10.10 | |
| SYF | Synchrony Financial | (2.37) | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.67 | (3.59) | 12.73 | |
| FITB | Fifth Third Bancorp | (0.06) | 8 per month | 1.02 | 0.16 | 2.76 | (2.15) | 9.19 | |
| WRB | W R Berkley | 0.70 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.10 | (2.56) | 7.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Circle Internet
For every potential investor in Circle, whether a beginner or expert, Circle Internet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Circle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Circle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Circle Internet's price trends.Circle Internet Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Circle Internet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Circle Internet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Circle Internet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Circle Internet Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Circle Internet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Circle Internet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Circle Internet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Circle Internet Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Circle Internet Risk Indicators
The analysis of Circle Internet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Circle Internet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting circle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.2 | |||
| Variance | 27.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Circle Internet
The number of cover stories for Circle Internet depends on current market conditions and Circle Internet's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Circle Internet is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Circle Internet's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Circle Internet Short Properties
Circle Internet's future price predictability will typically decrease when Circle Internet's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Circle Internet Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Circle Internet's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Circle Internet's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 73 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 765.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Circle Internet to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is IT Consulting & Other Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Circle Internet. Projected growth potential of Circle fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Circle Internet assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding Circle Internet Group requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Circle's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Circle Internet's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Circle Internet's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Circle Internet's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Circle Internet should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Circle Internet's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.