Credo Technology Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CRDO Stock  USD 98.06  1.11  1.14%   
Credo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Credo Technology's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Credo Technology's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Credo Technology fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Credo Technology's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Credo Technology's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Credo Technology Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Credo Technology's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
61.5
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.7931
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.8004
Wall Street Target Price
211.5
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.4953
Using Credo Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Credo Technology Group from the perspective of Credo Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Credo Technology using Credo Technology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Credo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Credo Technology's stock price.

Credo Technology Short Interest

An investor who is long Credo Technology may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Credo Technology and may potentially protect profits, hedge Credo Technology with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
119.4277
Short Percent
0.0486
Short Ratio
1.49
Shares Short Prior Month
7.3 M
50 Day MA
148.307

Credo Relative Strength Index

The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Credo Technology Group on the next trading day is expected to be 98.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 330.13.

Credo Technology Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Credo Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Credo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Credo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Credo Technology Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Credo Technology's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Credo Technology.

Credo Technology Implied Volatility

    
  0.99  
Credo Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Credo Technology Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Credo Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Credo Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Credo Technology's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Credo Technology Group on the next trading day is expected to be 98.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 330.13.

Credo Technology after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 96.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Credo Technology to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Credo contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Credo Technology Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0619% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Credo Technology trading at USD 98.06, that is roughly USD 0.0607 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Credo Technology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Credo Technology Group options at the current volatility level of 0.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Credo Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Credo Technology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Credo Technology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Credo Technology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Credo Technology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Credo Technology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Credo Technology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Credo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Credo Technology Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Credo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Credo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Credo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Credo Technology simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Credo Technology Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Credo Technology prices get older.

Credo Technology Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Credo Technology Group on the next trading day is expected to be 98.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.41, mean absolute percentage error of 51.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 330.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Credo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Credo Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Credo Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Credo Technology  Credo Technology Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Credo Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Credo Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Credo Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.22 and 102.90, respectively. We have considered Credo Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
98.06
98.06
Expected Value
102.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Credo Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Credo Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.0516
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.0746
MADMean absolute deviation5.412
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.037
SAESum of the absolute errors330.13
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Credo Technology Group forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Credo Technology observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Credo Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Credo Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Credo Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
91.1996.03100.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
88.25125.44130.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
107.55146.84186.13
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
192.47211.50234.77
Details

Credo Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Credo Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Credo Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Credo Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Credo Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Credo Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Credo Technology's historical news coverage. Credo Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 91.19 and 100.87, respectively. We have considered Credo Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
98.06
96.03
After-hype Price
100.87
Upside
Credo Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Credo Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.

Credo Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Credo Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Credo Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Credo Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.80 
4.84
  2.26 
  0.90 
8 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
98.06
96.03
2.07 
171.63  
Notes

Credo Technology Hype Timeline

Credo Technology is currently traded for 98.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.9. Credo is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 96.03. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 171.63%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.8%. The volatility of related hype on Credo Technology is about 430.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 98.96. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.9. Credo Technology had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Credo Technology to cross-verify your projections.

Credo Technology Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Credo Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Credo Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Credo Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Credo Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise(0.04)11 per month 0.00 (0.05) 2.85 (4.17) 9.60 
CIENCiena Corp 9.78 9 per month 4.23  0.11  9.22 (7.31) 23.22 
ERICTelefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson(0.04)8 per month 1.35  0.05  2.40 (1.89) 10.94 
ALABAstera Labs(4.25)12 per month 0.00 (0.06) 6.69 (8.74) 23.31 
PSTGPure Storage(1.41)10 per month 0.00 (0.12) 4.87 (5.74) 34.28 
FISFidelity National Information(0.45)9 per month 0.00 (0.19) 1.92 (3.05) 11.88 
KEYSKeysight Technologies 3.88 10 per month 1.54  0.13  2.87 (2.83) 13.11 
NOKNokia Corp ADR(0.05)8 per month 2.78 (0.01) 3.59 (4.44) 12.63 
SNDKSandisk Corp 3.45 8 per month 6.20  0.24  15.31 (13.96) 43.52 
SMCISuper Micro Computer 0.37 9 per month 0.00 (0.19) 5.77 (6.60) 14.71 

Other Forecasting Options for Credo Technology

For every potential investor in Credo, whether a beginner or expert, Credo Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Credo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Credo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Credo Technology's price trends.

Credo Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Credo Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Credo Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Credo Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Credo Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Credo Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Credo Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Credo Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Credo Technology Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Credo Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Credo Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Credo Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting credo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Credo Technology

The number of cover stories for Credo Technology depends on current market conditions and Credo Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Credo Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Credo Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Credo Technology Short Properties

Credo Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Credo Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Credo Technology Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Credo Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Credo Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding181.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments431.3 M
When determining whether Credo Technology offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Credo Technology's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Credo Technology Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Credo Technology Group Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Credo Technology to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Will Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Credo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Credo Technology. Projected growth potential of Credo fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Credo Technology data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
61.5
Earnings Share
1.01
Revenue Per Share
4.644
Quarterly Revenue Growth
2.721
Return On Assets
0.12
Understanding Credo Technology requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Credo's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Credo Technology's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Credo Technology's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Credo Technology's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Credo Technology should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Credo Technology's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.