Ciena Corp Stock Price Prediction
| CIEN Stock | USD 229.14 0.89 0.39% |
Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.3407 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.8869 | Wall Street Target Price 237.125 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.7696 |
Using Ciena Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ciena Corp from the perspective of Ciena Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ciena Corp using Ciena Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ciena using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ciena Corp's stock price.
Ciena Corp Short Interest
An investor who is long Ciena Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ciena Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ciena Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 133.3714 | Short Percent 0.0748 | Short Ratio 2.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.4 M | 50 Day MA 219.0132 |
Ciena Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ciena Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ciena. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ciena can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ciena Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ciena Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ciena Corp.
Ciena Corp Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
Ciena Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ciena Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ciena Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ciena Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ciena Corp's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ciena Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ciena because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ciena Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 228.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ciena contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ciena Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ciena Corp trading at USD 229.14, that is roughly USD 0.13 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ciena Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ciena Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Ciena Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ciena Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ciena Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ciena Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ciena Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ciena Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ciena Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ciena Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ciena Corp's historical news coverage. Ciena Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 224.34 and 232.82, respectively. We have considered Ciena Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ciena Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ciena Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ciena Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ciena Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ciena Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ciena Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 4.28 | 0.56 | 0.21 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
229.14 | 228.58 | 0.24 |
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Ciena Corp Hype Timeline
Ciena Corp is currently traded for 229.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.56, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. Ciena is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 228.58. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Ciena Corp is about 938.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 229.35. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.08. Ciena Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:7 split on the 25th of September 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Ciena Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ciena Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ciena Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ciena Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Ciena Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ciena Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VCV | Invesco California Value | 0.16 | 8 per month | 0.78 | (0.01) | 1.53 | (1.55) | 3.42 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | 1.34 | 7 per month | 1.09 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| NMFC | New Mountain Finance | 0.13 | 5 per month | 1.01 | (0.05) | 1.66 | (1.69) | 5.28 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | 2.39 | 7 per month | 2.42 | 0.19 | 6.55 | (4.82) | 18.46 | |
| KOS | Kosmos Energy | (0.01) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.27 | (5.99) | 25.11 | |
| GGG | Graco Inc | 1.63 | 6 per month | 1.19 | 0.01 | 2.46 | (1.90) | 6.74 | |
| NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | (0.61) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.98 | (4.00) | 14.26 | |
| SRTOY | Sartorius Stedim Biotech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.97 | (0.01) | 2.92 | (3.28) | 14.94 | |
| KNX | Knight Transportation | (0.26) | 9 per month | 1.86 | 0.1 | 3.84 | (2.96) | 8.76 | |
| KNOP | KNOT Offshore Partners | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.17 | 0.09 | 3.99 | (2.14) | 12.60 |
Ciena Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ciena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ciena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ciena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ciena Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ciena Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ciena Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ciena Corp based on analysis of Ciena Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ciena Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ciena Corp's related companies. | 2010 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 74.68 | 85.48 | 64.82 | PTB Ratio | 9.9 | 2.42 | 2.3 |
Pair Trading with Ciena Corp
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ciena Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ciena Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Ciena Stock
| 0.7 | PBCRY | Bank Central Asia | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | PBCRF | PT Bank Central Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | CALX | Calix Inc Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | ANET | Arista Networks | PairCorr |
| 0.37 | BKRKF | PT Bank Rakyat | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ciena Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ciena Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ciena Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ciena Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Ciena Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ciena Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ciena Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ciena Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Ciena Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Ciena Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ciena Corp guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ciena Corp. If investors know Ciena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ciena Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | Earnings Share 0.85 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.203 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Ciena Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ciena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ciena Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ciena Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ciena Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ciena Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ciena Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ciena Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ciena Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.