Crescent Steel Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CSAP Stock | 134.63 12.24 10.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Crescent Steel Allied on the next trading day is expected to be 137.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.66. Crescent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Crescent Steel stock prices and determine the direction of Crescent Steel Allied's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Crescent Steel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of today the value of rsi of Crescent Steel's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Crescent Steel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Crescent Steel Allied from the perspective of Crescent Steel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Crescent Steel Allied on the next trading day is expected to be 137.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.66. Crescent Steel after-hype prediction price | PKR 134.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Crescent |
Crescent Steel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Crescent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Crescent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Crescent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Crescent Steel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Crescent Steel Allied on the next trading day is expected to be 137.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.88, mean absolute percentage error of 6.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Crescent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Crescent Steel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Crescent Steel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Crescent Steel | Crescent Steel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Crescent Steel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Crescent Steel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Crescent Steel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 135.12 and 139.84, respectively. We have considered Crescent Steel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Crescent Steel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Crescent Steel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.7541 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8815 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0176 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 116.6556 |
Predictive Modules for Crescent Steel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crescent Steel Allied. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Crescent Steel After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Crescent Steel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Crescent Steel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Crescent Steel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Crescent Steel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Crescent Steel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Crescent Steel's historical news coverage. Crescent Steel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 132.27 and 136.99, respectively. We have considered Crescent Steel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Crescent Steel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Crescent Steel Allied is based on 3 months time horizon.
Crescent Steel Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Crescent Steel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Crescent Steel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Crescent Steel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.59 | 2.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
134.63 | 134.63 | 0.00 |
|
Crescent Steel Hype Timeline
Crescent Steel Allied is currently traded for 134.63on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Crescent is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.59%. %. The volatility of related hype on Crescent Steel is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 134.63. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crescent Steel to cross-verify your projections.Crescent Steel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Crescent Steel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Crescent Steel's future price movements. Getting to know how Crescent Steel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Crescent Steel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AICL | Adamjee Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.65 | 0.15 | 5.95 | (2.64) | 17.84 | |
| SBL | Samba Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.99 | 0.05 | 9.99 | (3.69) | 16.43 | |
| ABL | Allied Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.41 | (0.04) | 2.46 | (1.84) | 5.55 | |
| CENI | Century Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | 0.05 | 3.73 | (3.81) | 12.59 | |
| ASIC | Asia Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.11 | (0.02) | 10.00 | (9.33) | 19.99 | |
| ARPAK | Arpak International Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.07 | 0.03 | 10.00 | (8.93) | 19.79 | |
| HTL | Hi Tech Lubricants | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.34 | 0.02 | 6.56 | (3.70) | 16.66 | |
| AKDHL | AKD Hospitality | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.31 | (0.04) | 3.26 | (2.90) | 10.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Crescent Steel
For every potential investor in Crescent, whether a beginner or expert, Crescent Steel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Crescent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Crescent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Crescent Steel's price trends.Crescent Steel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Crescent Steel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Crescent Steel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Crescent Steel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Crescent Steel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Crescent Steel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Crescent Steel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Crescent Steel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Crescent Steel Allied entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 502545.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.009068 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.1 | |||
| Day Median Price | 128.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 130.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 12.18 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 12.24 |
Crescent Steel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Crescent Steel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Crescent Steel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting crescent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6972 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4861 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Crescent Steel
The number of cover stories for Crescent Steel depends on current market conditions and Crescent Steel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Crescent Steel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Crescent Steel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Crescent Steel Short Properties
Crescent Steel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Crescent Steel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Crescent Steel Allied often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Crescent Steel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Crescent Steel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.6 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 14 K | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 973.9 M |
Other Information on Investing in Crescent Stock
Crescent Steel financial ratios help investors to determine whether Crescent Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Crescent with respect to the benefits of owning Crescent Steel security.