Canadian Solar Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CSIQ Stock | USD 22.43 0.98 4.57% |
Canadian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Canadian Solar's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Canadian Solar, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Canadian Solar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Canadian Solar from the perspective of Canadian Solar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Canadian Solar on the next trading day is expected to be 23.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.67. Canadian Solar after-hype prediction price | USD 22.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canadian Solar to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Canadian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Canadian Solar guide.Canadian Solar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Canadian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Canadian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Canadian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Canadian Solar Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Canadian Solar on the next trading day is expected to be 23.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.24, mean absolute percentage error of 2.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Canadian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Canadian Solar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Canadian Solar Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Canadian Solar | Canadian Solar Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Canadian Solar Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Canadian Solar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Canadian Solar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.39 and 31.32, respectively. We have considered Canadian Solar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Canadian Solar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Canadian Solar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2037 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2405 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0522 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 75.6727 |
Predictive Modules for Canadian Solar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canadian Solar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Canadian Solar After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Canadian Solar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Canadian Solar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Canadian Solar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Canadian Solar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Canadian Solar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Canadian Solar's historical news coverage. Canadian Solar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.97 and 29.89, respectively. We have considered Canadian Solar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Canadian Solar is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Canadian Solar is based on 3 months time horizon.
Canadian Solar Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Canadian Solar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Canadian Solar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Canadian Solar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.92 | 7.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.43 | 22.43 | 0.00 |
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Canadian Solar Hype Timeline
Canadian Solar is currently traded for 22.43. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Canadian is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.92%. %. The volatility of related hype on Canadian Solar is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.43. About 30.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.52. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Canadian Solar has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.16. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.19. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canadian Solar to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Canadian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Canadian Solar guide.Canadian Solar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Canadian Solar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Canadian Solar's future price movements. Getting to know how Canadian Solar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Canadian Solar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IMSR | Terrestrial Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 13.69 | (11.78) | 41.11 | |
| ARRY | Array Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.37 | 0.09 | 7.63 | (7.21) | 17.92 | |
| SEDG | SolarEdge Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.47 | (0.01) | 8.69 | (7.58) | 43.24 | |
| METC | Ramaco Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.55 | (8.67) | 17.20 | |
| SHLS | Shoals Technologies Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.74 | (7.72) | 19.23 | |
| GLP | Global Partners LP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | (0.03) | 3.06 | (2.99) | 9.17 | |
| DNOW | Now Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.90 | (3.24) | 11.62 | |
| NEXT | Nextdecade Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.15 | (6.04) | 17.50 | |
| WKC | World Kinect | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.06 | (0) | 2.87 | (3.35) | 11.51 | |
| EFXT | Enerflex | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.64 | 0.19 | 3.88 | (3.16) | 11.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for Canadian Solar
For every potential investor in Canadian, whether a beginner or expert, Canadian Solar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Canadian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Canadian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Canadian Solar's price trends.Canadian Solar Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Canadian Solar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Canadian Solar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Canadian Solar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Canadian Solar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Canadian Solar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Canadian Solar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Canadian Solar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Canadian Solar entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Canadian Solar Risk Indicators
The analysis of Canadian Solar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Canadian Solar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting canadian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.46 | |||
| Variance | 55.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 58.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 43.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Canadian Solar
The number of cover stories for Canadian Solar depends on current market conditions and Canadian Solar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Canadian Solar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Canadian Solar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Canadian Solar Short Properties
Canadian Solar's future price predictability will typically decrease when Canadian Solar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Canadian Solar often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Canadian Solar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian Solar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.3 B |
Additional Tools for Canadian Stock Analysis
When running Canadian Solar's price analysis, check to measure Canadian Solar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Canadian Solar is operating at the current time. Most of Canadian Solar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Canadian Solar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Canadian Solar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Canadian Solar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.