Constellium Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CSTM Stock | USD 22.47 0.70 3.02% |
Constellium Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Constellium's stock price is about 65 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Constellium, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Constellium hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Constellium Nv from the perspective of Constellium response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Constellium Nv on the next trading day is expected to be 22.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.87. Constellium after-hype prediction price | USD 22.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Constellium Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Constellium price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Constellium using various technical indicators. When you analyze Constellium charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Constellium Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Constellium Nv on the next trading day is expected to be 22.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Constellium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Constellium's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Constellium Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Constellium | Constellium Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Constellium Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Constellium's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Constellium's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.38 and 24.66, respectively. We have considered Constellium's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Constellium stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Constellium stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0448 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3199 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.8744 |
Predictive Modules for Constellium
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Constellium Nv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Constellium's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Constellium After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Constellium at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Constellium or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Constellium, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Constellium Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Constellium's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Constellium's historical news coverage. Constellium's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.33 and 24.61, respectively. We have considered Constellium's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Constellium is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Constellium Nv is based on 3 months time horizon.
Constellium Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Constellium is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Constellium backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Constellium, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 2.14 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.47 | 22.47 | 0.00 |
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Constellium Hype Timeline
Constellium Nv is currently traded for 22.47. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.51. Constellium is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.55%. %. The volatility of related hype on Constellium is about 232.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.96. About 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Constellium was currently reported as 6.13. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.06. Constellium Nv had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Constellium to cross-verify your projections.Constellium Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Constellium's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Constellium's future price movements. Getting to know how Constellium's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Constellium may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum | (0.74) | 10 per month | 1.57 | 0.20 | 3.07 | (2.75) | 8.95 | |
| CENX | Century Aluminum | (3.68) | 6 per month | 3.84 | 0.15 | 6.70 | (7.26) | 27.76 | |
| DRD | DRDGOLD Limited ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.64 | 0.12 | 4.85 | (8.22) | 18.57 | |
| SID | Companhia Siderurgica Nacional | 0.03 | 9 per month | 3.09 | 0.06 | 5.56 | (5.79) | 13.47 | |
| OLN | Olin Corporation | (1.05) | 15 per month | 2.56 | 0.02 | 5.72 | (4.57) | 14.02 | |
| ERO | Ero Copper Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.76 | 0.24 | 5.74 | (3.87) | 18.18 | |
| ASH | Ashland Global Holdings | (0.78) | 3 per month | 1.33 | 0.12 | 4.54 | (2.64) | 13.67 | |
| BCC | Boise Cascad Llc | (2.52) | 11 per month | 1.73 | 0.06 | 6.20 | (3.06) | 11.47 | |
| MTRN | Materion | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.06 | 0.13 | 3.81 | (2.56) | 14.50 | |
| FSM | Fortuna Silver Mines | (0.45) | 10 per month | 3.19 | 0.1 | 4.51 | (3.97) | 14.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Constellium
For every potential investor in Constellium, whether a beginner or expert, Constellium's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Constellium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Constellium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Constellium's price trends.Constellium Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Constellium stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Constellium could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Constellium by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Constellium Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Constellium stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Constellium shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Constellium stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Constellium Nv entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Constellium Risk Indicators
The analysis of Constellium's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Constellium's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting constellium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Variance | 4.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Constellium
The number of cover stories for Constellium depends on current market conditions and Constellium's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Constellium is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Constellium's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Constellium Short Properties
Constellium's future price predictability will typically decrease when Constellium's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Constellium Nv often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Constellium's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Constellium's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 147.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 141 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Constellium to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Constellium diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Constellium. Projected growth potential of Constellium fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Constellium data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Constellium Nv is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Constellium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Constellium's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Constellium's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Constellium's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Constellium's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Constellium's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Constellium should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Constellium's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.