Contango ORE Stock Forward View
| CTGO Stock | USD 25.57 2.01 7.29% |
Contango Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Contango ORE's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Contango ORE's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Contango ORE fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Contango ORE's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.33 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.26 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.64 | Wall Street Target Price 36.8 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.13) |
Using Contango ORE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Contango ORE from the perspective of Contango ORE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Contango ORE using Contango ORE's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Contango using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Contango ORE's stock price.
Contango ORE Implied Volatility | 0.97 |
Contango ORE's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Contango ORE stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Contango ORE's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Contango ORE stock will not fluctuate a lot when Contango ORE's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Contango ORE on the next trading day is expected to be 23.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.39. Contango ORE after-hype prediction price | USD 27.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Contango ORE to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Contango contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Contango ORE will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0606% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Contango ORE trading at USD 25.57, that is roughly USD 0.0155 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Contango ORE's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Contango ORE options at the current volatility level of 0.97%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Contango Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Contango ORE's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Contango ORE's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Contango ORE stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Contango ORE's open interest, investors have to compare it to Contango ORE's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Contango ORE is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Contango. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Contango ORE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Contango price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Contango using various technical indicators. When you analyze Contango charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Contango ORE Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Contango ORE's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 20.1 M | Current Value 107 M | Quarterly Volatility 15.9 M |
Contango ORE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Contango ORE on the next trading day is expected to be 23.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92, mean absolute percentage error of 1.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Contango Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Contango ORE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Contango ORE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Contango ORE | Contango ORE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Contango ORE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Contango ORE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Contango ORE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.40 and 27.14, respectively. We have considered Contango ORE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Contango ORE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Contango ORE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4405 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9244 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0352 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.3854 |
Predictive Modules for Contango ORE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Contango ORE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Contango ORE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Contango ORE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Contango ORE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Contango ORE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Contango ORE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Contango ORE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Contango ORE's historical news coverage. Contango ORE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.96 and 31.50, respectively. We have considered Contango ORE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Contango ORE is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Contango ORE is based on 3 months time horizon.
Contango ORE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Contango ORE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Contango ORE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Contango ORE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 3.87 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 36 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 36 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.57 | 27.73 | 0.54 |
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Contango ORE Hype Timeline
Contango ORE is currently traded for 25.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. Contango is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 27.73 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is forecasted to be 0.54%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Contango ORE is about 594.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.35. Net Loss for the year was (38.03 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 36 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Contango ORE to cross-verify your projections.Contango ORE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Contango ORE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Contango ORE's future price movements. Getting to know how Contango ORE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Contango ORE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GLDG | GoldMining | (0.01) | 6 per month | 4.41 | 0.05 | 9.45 | (7.25) | 28.50 | |
| USAU | US Gold Corp | (0.76) | 8 per month | 3.89 | 0.05 | 7.02 | (6.01) | 24.87 | |
| HYMC | Hycroft Mining Holding | (4.50) | 9 per month | 4.98 | 0.29 | 19.48 | (8.85) | 67.66 | |
| VGZ | Vista Gold | (0.04) | 10 per month | 4.78 | 0.12 | 11.63 | (7.63) | 33.87 | |
| DC | Dakota Gold Corp | (0.75) | 8 per month | 2.92 | 0.14 | 8.15 | (5.30) | 29.80 | |
| BGL | Blue Gold Limited | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 13.74 | (16.33) | 124.55 | |
| PLG | Platinum Group Metals | 0.12 | 34 per month | 5.17 | 0.08 | 8.91 | (6.73) | 37.93 | |
| CLW | Clearwater Paper | (0.46) | 9 per month | 2.54 | (0.01) | 4.90 | (3.34) | 15.05 | |
| THM | International Tower Hill | (0.10) | 8 per month | 3.95 | 0.11 | 13.61 | (7.41) | 29.38 | |
| TRX | Tanzanian Royalty Exploration | (0.05) | 9 per month | 5.32 | 0.22 | 12.87 | (8.00) | 52.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Contango ORE
For every potential investor in Contango, whether a beginner or expert, Contango ORE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Contango Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Contango. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Contango ORE's price trends.Contango ORE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Contango ORE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Contango ORE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Contango ORE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Contango ORE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Contango ORE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Contango ORE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Contango ORE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Contango ORE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17074.91 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.11) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.93 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.07 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.75) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.01) |
Contango ORE Risk Indicators
The analysis of Contango ORE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Contango ORE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting contango stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.72 | |||
| Variance | 13.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Contango ORE
The number of cover stories for Contango ORE depends on current market conditions and Contango ORE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Contango ORE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Contango ORE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Contango ORE Short Properties
Contango ORE's future price predictability will typically decrease when Contango ORE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Contango ORE often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Contango ORE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Contango ORE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Contango ORE to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Contango Stock, please use our How to Invest in Contango ORE guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Will Diversified Metals & Mining sector continue expanding? Could Contango diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Contango ORE. Projected growth potential of Contango fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Contango ORE data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Contango ORE using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Contango ORE's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Contango ORE's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Contango ORE's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Contango ORE should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Contango ORE's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.