CTO Realty Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CTO Stock | USD 19.66 0.19 0.98% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CTO Realty Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 19.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.78. CTO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although CTO Realty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of CTO Realty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CTO Realty fundamentals over time.
CTO |
CTO Realty Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the CTO Realty's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 6.2 M | Current Value 8.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 5 M |
CTO Realty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CTO Realty Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 19.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CTO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CTO Realty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CTO Realty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CTO Realty | CTO Realty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CTO Realty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CTO Realty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CTO Realty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.20 and 21.29, respectively. We have considered CTO Realty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CTO Realty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CTO Realty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7479 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2385 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.7842 |
Predictive Modules for CTO Realty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CTO Realty Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CTO Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for CTO Realty
For every potential investor in CTO, whether a beginner or expert, CTO Realty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CTO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CTO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CTO Realty's price trends.CTO Realty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CTO Realty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CTO Realty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CTO Realty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CTO Realty Growth Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CTO Realty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CTO Realty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
CTO Realty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CTO Realty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CTO Realty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CTO Realty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CTO Realty Growth entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CTO Realty Risk Indicators
The analysis of CTO Realty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CTO Realty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cto stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.84 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with CTO Realty
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CTO Realty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CTO Realty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with CTO Stock
Moving against CTO Stock
| 0.5 | INN | Summit Hotel Properties | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties Downward Rally | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | EGP | EastGroup Properties | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | LXP | LXP Industrial Trust | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | O | Realty Income | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CTO Realty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CTO Realty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CTO Realty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CTO Realty Growth to buy it.
The correlation of CTO Realty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CTO Realty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CTO Realty Growth moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CTO Realty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CTO Realty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Multi-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CTO Realty. If investors know CTO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CTO Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.564 | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share 0.61 | Revenue Per Share 5.09 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.117 |
The market value of CTO Realty Growth is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CTO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CTO Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CTO Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CTO Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CTO Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CTO Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CTO Realty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CTO Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.