Commercial Vehicle Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CVGI Stock | USD 1.62 0.01 0.61% |
Commercial Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Commercial Vehicle's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Commercial Vehicle's share price is approaching 49 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Commercial Vehicle, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.286 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.1) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.45) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.24) | Wall Street Target Price 4 |
Using Commercial Vehicle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commercial Vehicle Group from the perspective of Commercial Vehicle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Commercial Vehicle using Commercial Vehicle's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Commercial using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Commercial Vehicle's stock price.
Commercial Vehicle Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Commercial Vehicle's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Commercial. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Commercial Vehicle stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 1.5668 | Short Percent 0.0057 | Short Ratio 1.95 | Shares Short Prior Month 269.9 K | 50 Day MA 1.6082 |
Commercial Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial Vehicle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.81.Commercial Vehicle Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Commercial Vehicle's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Commercial. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Commercial can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Commercial Vehicle Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Commercial Vehicle's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Commercial Vehicle.
Commercial Vehicle Implied Volatility | 2.17 |
Commercial Vehicle's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Commercial Vehicle Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Commercial Vehicle's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Commercial Vehicle stock will not fluctuate a lot when Commercial Vehicle's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial Vehicle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.81. Commercial Vehicle after-hype prediction price | USD 1.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Commercial | Build AI portfolio with Commercial Stock |
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Commercial Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Commercial Vehicle's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Commercial Vehicle's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Commercial Vehicle stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Commercial Vehicle's open interest, investors have to compare it to Commercial Vehicle's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Commercial Vehicle is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Commercial. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Commercial Vehicle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Commercial price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commercial using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commercial charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Commercial Vehicle Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial Vehicle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commercial Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commercial Vehicle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Commercial Vehicle Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Commercial Vehicle | Commercial Vehicle Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Commercial Vehicle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Commercial Vehicle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Commercial Vehicle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.65, respectively. We have considered Commercial Vehicle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commercial Vehicle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commercial Vehicle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7182 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 6.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0468 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0295 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.8093 |
Predictive Modules for Commercial Vehicle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial Vehicle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Commercial Vehicle After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Commercial Vehicle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commercial Vehicle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Commercial Vehicle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Commercial Vehicle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Commercial Vehicle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Commercial Vehicle's historical news coverage. Commercial Vehicle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 5.62, respectively. We have considered Commercial Vehicle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Commercial Vehicle is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Commercial Vehicle is based on 3 months time horizon.
Commercial Vehicle Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Commercial Vehicle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commercial Vehicle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commercial Vehicle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 4.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.62 | 1.62 | 0.00 |
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Commercial Vehicle Hype Timeline
Commercial Vehicle is currently traded for 1.62. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Commercial is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Commercial Vehicle is about 33583.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.62. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.44. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Commercial Vehicle has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.27. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.47. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commercial Vehicle to cross-verify your projections.Commercial Vehicle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Commercial Vehicle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commercial Vehicle's future price movements. Getting to know how Commercial Vehicle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commercial Vehicle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GGR | Gogoro Inc | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.78 | (7.21) | 23.10 | |
| FRSX | Foresight Autonomous Holdings | 0.16 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.93 | (7.78) | 35.97 | |
| STKS | One Group Hospitality | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.75 | (5.69) | 28.79 | |
| VRA | Vera Bradley | (0.09) | 6 per month | 5.50 | 0.05 | 10.61 | (7.39) | 35.83 | |
| CNTY | Century Casinos | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 6.99 | (6.54) | 20.05 | |
| LAZR | Luminar Technologies | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 17.05 | (45.02) | 236.06 | |
| NCL | Northann Corp | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 11.76 | (13.33) | 81.07 | |
| SYPR | Sypris Solutions | 0.06 | 10 per month | 3.46 | 0.13 | 11.93 | (6.72) | 30.48 | |
| WPRT | Westport Fuel Systems | (0.06) | 8 per month | 2.52 | 0.02 | 6.33 | (4.94) | 18.19 | |
| LCUT | Lifetime Brands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.06 | 0.02 | 5.43 | (4.33) | 16.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Commercial Vehicle
For every potential investor in Commercial, whether a beginner or expert, Commercial Vehicle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Commercial Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Commercial. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Commercial Vehicle's price trends.Commercial Vehicle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Commercial Vehicle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Commercial Vehicle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commercial Vehicle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Commercial Vehicle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Commercial Vehicle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Commercial Vehicle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Commercial Vehicle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Commercial Vehicle Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Commercial Vehicle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Commercial Vehicle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Commercial Vehicle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting commercial stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.97 | |||
| Variance | 15.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Commercial Vehicle
The number of cover stories for Commercial Vehicle depends on current market conditions and Commercial Vehicle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Commercial Vehicle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Commercial Vehicle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Commercial Vehicle Short Properties
Commercial Vehicle's future price predictability will typically decrease when Commercial Vehicle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Commercial Vehicle Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Commercial Vehicle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commercial Vehicle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commercial Vehicle to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commercial Vehicle. If investors know Commercial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commercial Vehicle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.286 | Earnings Share (1.47) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Commercial Vehicle is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commercial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commercial Vehicle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commercial Vehicle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commercial Vehicle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commercial Vehicle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commercial Vehicle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commercial Vehicle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commercial Vehicle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.