CyberArk Software Stock Forward View

CYBR Stock  USD 430.83  1.68  0.39%   
CyberArk Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of CyberArk Software's share price is approaching 38 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CyberArk Software, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 38

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of CyberArk Software's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of CyberArk Software and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from CyberArk Software's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with CyberArk Software, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using CyberArk Software hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CyberArk Software from the perspective of CyberArk Software response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CyberArk Software on the next trading day is expected to be 426.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 497.86.

CyberArk Software after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 430.83  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CyberArk Software to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in CyberArk Stock, please use our How to Invest in CyberArk Software guide.

CyberArk Software Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine CyberArk price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CyberArk using various technical indicators. When you analyze CyberArk charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for CyberArk Software is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CyberArk Software value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

CyberArk Software Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CyberArk Software on the next trading day is expected to be 426.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.16, mean absolute percentage error of 110.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 497.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CyberArk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CyberArk Software's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CyberArk Software Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CyberArk Software  CyberArk Software Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

CyberArk Software Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CyberArk Software's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CyberArk Software's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 424.68 and 428.01, respectively. We have considered CyberArk Software's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
430.83
424.68
Downside
426.34
Expected Value
428.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CyberArk Software stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CyberArk Software stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.8137
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation8.1616
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0177
SAESum of the absolute errors497.8591
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CyberArk Software. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CyberArk Software. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CyberArk Software

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CyberArk Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
429.17430.83432.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
364.55366.21473.91
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
427.25447.66468.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CyberArk Software. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CyberArk Software's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CyberArk Software's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CyberArk Software.

CyberArk Software After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of CyberArk Software at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CyberArk Software or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CyberArk Software, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

CyberArk Software Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting CyberArk Software's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CyberArk Software's historical news coverage. CyberArk Software's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 429.17 and 432.49, respectively. We have considered CyberArk Software's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
430.83
429.17
Downside
430.83
After-hype Price
432.49
Upside
CyberArk Software is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CyberArk Software is based on 3 months time horizon.

CyberArk Software Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CyberArk Software is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CyberArk Software backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CyberArk Software, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
1.66
 0.00  
  0.06 
0 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
430.83
430.83
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

CyberArk Software Hype Timeline

CyberArk Software is currently traded for 430.83. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.06. CyberArk is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on CyberArk Software is about 751.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 430.77. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 4.83. CyberArk Software had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CyberArk Software to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in CyberArk Stock, please use our How to Invest in CyberArk Software guide.

CyberArk Software Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to CyberArk Software's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CyberArk Software's future price movements. Getting to know how CyberArk Software's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CyberArk Software may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VRSNVeriSign 1.81 10 per month 0.00 (0.04) 1.99 (2.77) 6.57 
MDBMongoDB(5.05)9 per month 2.74  0.04  3.57 (4.77) 31.24 
IOTSamsara 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.19) 3.86 (5.00) 19.39 
CHKPCheck Point Software(0.44)4 per month 0.00 (0.07) 2.18 (2.74) 9.86 
AFRMAffirm Holdings 0.06 11 per month 0.00 (0.08) 6.01 (5.17) 18.92 
FFIVF5 Networks 5.58 8 per month 0.00 (0.04) 3.75 (3.18) 11.43 
TTDTrade Desk(2.55)8 per month 0.00 (0.35) 3.39 (4.79) 13.95 
TOSTToast Inc 0.80 9 per month 0.00 (0.12) 4.14 (4.25) 16.25 
PTCPTC Inc(2.58)9 per month 0.00 (0.24) 1.93 (3.01) 9.03 
ZMZoom Video Communications 0.16 10 per month 1.75  0.04  3.85 (3.33) 15.07 

Other Forecasting Options for CyberArk Software

For every potential investor in CyberArk, whether a beginner or expert, CyberArk Software's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CyberArk Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CyberArk. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CyberArk Software's price trends.

CyberArk Software Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CyberArk Software stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CyberArk Software could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CyberArk Software by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CyberArk Software Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CyberArk Software stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CyberArk Software shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CyberArk Software stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CyberArk Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CyberArk Software Risk Indicators

The analysis of CyberArk Software's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CyberArk Software's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cyberark stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for CyberArk Software

The number of cover stories for CyberArk Software depends on current market conditions and CyberArk Software's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CyberArk Software is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CyberArk Software's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

CyberArk Software Short Properties

CyberArk Software's future price predictability will typically decrease when CyberArk Software's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CyberArk Software often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CyberArk Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CyberArk Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding44.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments819.8 M

Additional Tools for CyberArk Stock Analysis

When running CyberArk Software's price analysis, check to measure CyberArk Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CyberArk Software is operating at the current time. Most of CyberArk Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CyberArk Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CyberArk Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CyberArk Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.