Duke Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

D2MN Stock  EUR 104.00  0.62  0.59%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Duke Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 97.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.02. Duke Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Duke Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Duke Energy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Duke Energy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Duke Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Duke Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 97.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71, mean absolute percentage error of 4.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Duke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Duke Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Duke Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Duke Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Duke Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Duke Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 96.67 and 99.21, respectively. We have considered Duke Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
104.00
97.94
Expected Value
99.21
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Duke Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Duke Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.4247
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7099
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0162
SAESum of the absolute errors106.0154
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Duke Energy. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Duke Energy. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Duke Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duke Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
102.74104.00105.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
86.8888.14114.40
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Duke Energy

For every potential investor in Duke, whether a beginner or expert, Duke Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Duke Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Duke. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Duke Energy's price trends.

Duke Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Duke Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Duke Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Duke Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Duke Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Duke Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Duke Energy's current price.

Duke Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Duke Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Duke Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Duke Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Duke Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Duke Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Duke Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Duke Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting duke stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Duke Stock

When determining whether Duke Energy is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Duke Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Duke Energy Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Duke Energy Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Duke Energy to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Duke Stock please use our How to Invest in Duke Energy guide.
You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Duke Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Duke Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Duke Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.