Dow Jones Index Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DJI Index | 43,870 461.88 1.06% |
Dow Jones Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dow Jones Industrial on the next trading day is expected to be 43,870 with a mean absolute deviation of 242.76, mean absolute percentage error of 108,534, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14,566.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dow Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dow Jones' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dow Jones Index Forecast Pattern
Dow Jones Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dow Jones' Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dow Jones' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43,870 and 43,871, respectively. We have considered Dow Jones' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dow Jones index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dow Jones index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 127.8674 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -42.255 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 242.7647 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0057 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14565.88 |
Predictive Modules for Dow Jones
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dow Jones Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Dow Jones
For every potential investor in Dow, whether a beginner or expert, Dow Jones' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dow Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dow Jones' price trends.Dow Jones Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dow Jones index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dow Jones could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dow Jones by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dow Jones Industrial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dow Jones' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dow Jones' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dow Jones Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dow Jones index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dow Jones shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dow Jones index market strength indicators, traders can identify Dow Jones Industrial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0153 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6845 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 43682.95 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 43745.41 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 674.73 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 418.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 461.88 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 59.8 |
Dow Jones Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dow Jones' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dow Jones' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dow index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.561 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4495 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7627 | |||
| Variance | 0.5818 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4028 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.202 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.