Dow Jones Index Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Dow Jones - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Dow Jones prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Dow Jones price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Dow Jones Industrial.

Dow Jones Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dow Jones Industrial on the next trading day is expected to be 45,060 with a mean absolute deviation of 267.36, mean absolute percentage error of 131,859, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15,774.

Dow Jones Index Forecast Pattern

Dow Jones Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dow Jones index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dow Jones index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Dow Jones observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Dow Jones Industrial observations.

Predictive Modules for Dow Jones

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dow Jones Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Dow Jones

For every potential investor in Dow, whether a beginner or expert, Dow Jones' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dow Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dow Jones' price trends.

Dow Jones Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Dow Jones Industrial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dow Jones' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dow Jones' current price.

Dow Jones Market Strength Events

Dow Jones Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.