Duluth Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DLTH Stock | USD 3.75 0.09 2.46% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Duluth Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.35. Duluth Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Duluth Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Duluth |
Duluth Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Duluth Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Duluth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Duluth Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Duluth Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Duluth Holdings | Duluth Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Duluth Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Duluth Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Duluth Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.08 and 7.42, respectively. We have considered Duluth Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Duluth Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Duluth Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.7599 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0052 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0892 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.35 |
Predictive Modules for Duluth Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duluth Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Duluth Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Duluth Holdings
For every potential investor in Duluth, whether a beginner or expert, Duluth Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Duluth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Duluth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Duluth Holdings' price trends.Duluth Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Duluth Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Duluth Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Duluth Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Duluth Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Duluth Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Duluth Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Duluth Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Duluth Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Duluth Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Duluth Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Duluth Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Duluth Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Duluth Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Duluth Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting duluth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.79 | |||
| Variance | 14.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Duluth Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Duluth Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Duluth Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Duluth Holdings Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Duluth Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Duluth Stock please use our How to Invest in Duluth Holdings guide.You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Duluth Holdings. If investors know Duluth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Duluth Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Earnings Share (0.45) | Revenue Per Share 19.386 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.018 | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Duluth Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Duluth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Duluth Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Duluth Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Duluth Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Duluth Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Duluth Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Duluth Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Duluth Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.