Deluxe Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DLX Stock | USD 24.23 0.57 2.30% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deluxe on the next trading day is expected to be 24.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.26. Deluxe Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Deluxe's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.717 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8975 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.55 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.6867 | Wall Street Target Price 28.6667 |
Using Deluxe hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Deluxe from the perspective of Deluxe response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Deluxe using Deluxe's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Deluxe using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Deluxe's stock price.
Deluxe Short Interest
An investor who is long Deluxe may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Deluxe and may potentially protect profits, hedge Deluxe with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 18.2637 | Short Percent 0.0893 | Short Ratio 8.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 21.7826 |
Deluxe Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Deluxe's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Deluxe. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Deluxe can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Deluxe. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Deluxe Implied Volatility | 1.1 |
Deluxe's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Deluxe stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Deluxe's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Deluxe stock will not fluctuate a lot when Deluxe's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deluxe on the next trading day is expected to be 24.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.26. Deluxe after-hype prediction price | USD 24.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deluxe to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Deluxe contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Deluxe will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0688% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Deluxe trading at USD 24.23, that is roughly USD 0.0167 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Deluxe's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Deluxe options at the current volatility level of 1.1%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Deluxe Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Deluxe's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Deluxe's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Deluxe stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Deluxe's open interest, investors have to compare it to Deluxe's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Deluxe is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Deluxe. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Deluxe Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Deluxe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Deluxe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Deluxe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Deluxe's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 26 M | Current Value 25.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 76.7 M |
Deluxe Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deluxe on the next trading day is expected to be 24.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Deluxe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Deluxe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Deluxe Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Deluxe | Deluxe Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Deluxe Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Deluxe's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Deluxe's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.03 and 27.07, respectively. We have considered Deluxe's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Deluxe stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Deluxe stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.178 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5526 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.2611 |
Predictive Modules for Deluxe
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deluxe. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Deluxe After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Deluxe at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Deluxe or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Deluxe, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Deluxe Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Deluxe's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Deluxe's historical news coverage. Deluxe's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.71 and 26.75, respectively. We have considered Deluxe's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Deluxe is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Deluxe is based on 3 months time horizon.
Deluxe Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Deluxe is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Deluxe backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Deluxe, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 2.52 | 0.10 | 0.50 | 2 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.23 | 24.23 | 0.00 |
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Deluxe Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Deluxe is traded for 24.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.5. Deluxe is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.46%. %. The volatility of related hype on Deluxe is about 229.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.73. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.68. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Deluxe has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.47. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2025. The firm had 10000:7995 split on the 2nd of January 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deluxe to cross-verify your projections.Deluxe Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Deluxe's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Deluxe's future price movements. Getting to know how Deluxe's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Deluxe may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EEX | Emerald Expositions Events | (0.33) | 20 per month | 3.12 | 0.01 | 5.90 | (6.67) | 47.51 | |
| SSTK | Shutterstock | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.38 | (4.09) | 16.71 | |
| QNST | QuinStreet | (0.33) | 10 per month | 1.99 | (0.02) | 4.64 | (3.41) | 13.18 | |
| CCO | Clear Channel Outdoor | 0.21 | 9 per month | 2.27 | 0.03 | 5.62 | (4.07) | 13.17 | |
| EVER | EverQuote Class A | 0.40 | 10 per month | 2.11 | 0.09 | 4.31 | (3.84) | 14.16 | |
| ATHM | Autohome | 0.21 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.84 | (3.05) | 7.71 | |
| GCI | Gannett Co | 0.21 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.31 | (4.72) | 83.34 | |
| CABO | Cable One | 10.53 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 4.00 | (7.60) | 17.97 | |
| GETY | Getty Images Holdings | (0.12) | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 5.51 | (6.63) | 18.86 | |
| FVRR | Fiverr International | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.93 | (4.82) | 11.60 |
Other Forecasting Options for Deluxe
For every potential investor in Deluxe, whether a beginner or expert, Deluxe's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Deluxe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Deluxe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Deluxe's price trends.Deluxe Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Deluxe stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Deluxe could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Deluxe by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Deluxe Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Deluxe stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Deluxe shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Deluxe stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Deluxe entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10039.61 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.85) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.55 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.60) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.57) |
Deluxe Risk Indicators
The analysis of Deluxe's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Deluxe's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting deluxe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Variance | 6.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Deluxe
The number of cover stories for Deluxe depends on current market conditions and Deluxe's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Deluxe is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Deluxe's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Deluxe Short Properties
Deluxe's future price predictability will typically decrease when Deluxe's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Deluxe often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Deluxe's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Deluxe's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 34.4 M |
Additional Tools for Deluxe Stock Analysis
When running Deluxe's price analysis, check to measure Deluxe's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Deluxe is operating at the current time. Most of Deluxe's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Deluxe's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Deluxe's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Deluxe to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.