Amdocs Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DOX Stock | USD 85.20 1.47 1.76% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amdocs on the next trading day is expected to be 81.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.25. Amdocs Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Amdocs |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Amdocs' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1998-06-30 | Previous Quarter 318 M | Current Value 318 M | Quarterly Volatility 268.1 M |
Amdocs Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amdocs on the next trading day is expected to be 81.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.02, mean absolute percentage error of 1.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amdocs Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amdocs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amdocs Stock Forecast Pattern
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Amdocs Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amdocs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amdocs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 79.91 and 82.17, respectively. We have considered Amdocs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amdocs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amdocs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7593 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0205 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0116 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 62.2487 |
Predictive Modules for Amdocs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amdocs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Amdocs
For every potential investor in Amdocs, whether a beginner or expert, Amdocs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amdocs Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amdocs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amdocs' price trends.View Amdocs Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amdocs Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amdocs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amdocs' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Amdocs Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amdocs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amdocs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amdocs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amdocs entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Amdocs Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amdocs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amdocs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amdocs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.774 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Variance | 1.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Amdocs Stock Analysis
When running Amdocs' price analysis, check to measure Amdocs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amdocs is operating at the current time. Most of Amdocs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amdocs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amdocs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amdocs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.