Ecolab Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

ECL Stock  USD 281.99  0.84  0.30%   
Ecolab Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ecolab's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ecolab's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ecolab fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Ecolab's stock price is about 62 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ecolab, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 62

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Ecolab's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ecolab and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ecolab's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ecolab Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ecolab's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.065
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.0793
EPS Estimate Current Year
7.5297
EPS Estimate Next Year
8.4754
Wall Street Target Price
295.381
Using Ecolab hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ecolab Inc from the perspective of Ecolab response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ecolab using Ecolab's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ecolab using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ecolab's stock price.

Ecolab Short Interest

An investor who is long Ecolab may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ecolab and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ecolab with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
266.3217
Short Percent
0.0107
Short Ratio
2.21
Shares Short Prior Month
3.4 M
50 Day MA
268.3344

Ecolab Relative Strength Index

The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ecolab Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 281.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 161.70.

Ecolab Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Ecolab's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ecolab. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ecolab can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ecolab Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ecolab's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ecolab.

Ecolab Implied Volatility

    
  0.29  
Ecolab's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ecolab Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ecolab's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ecolab stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ecolab's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ecolab Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 281.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 161.70.

Ecolab after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 282.77  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ecolab to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ecolab contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ecolab Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0181% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ecolab trading at USD 281.99, that is roughly USD 0.0511 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ecolab's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ecolab Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ecolab Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ecolab's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ecolab's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ecolab stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ecolab's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ecolab's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ecolab is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ecolab. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Ecolab Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ecolab price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ecolab using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ecolab charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Ecolab is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Ecolab Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ecolab Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 281.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.74, mean absolute percentage error of 11.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 161.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ecolab Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ecolab's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ecolab Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ecolab  Ecolab Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Ecolab Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ecolab's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ecolab's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 280.88 and 283.10, respectively. We have considered Ecolab's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
281.99
280.88
Downside
281.99
Expected Value
283.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ecolab stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ecolab stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.8903
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.6069
MADMean absolute deviation2.7406
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0103
SAESum of the absolute errors161.695
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Ecolab Inc price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Ecolab. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Ecolab

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ecolab Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ecolab's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
281.66282.77283.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
273.48274.59310.19
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
260.28274.56288.83
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
268.80295.38327.87
Details

Ecolab After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ecolab at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ecolab or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ecolab, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ecolab Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ecolab's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ecolab's historical news coverage. Ecolab's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 281.66 and 283.88, respectively. We have considered Ecolab's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
281.99
281.66
Downside
282.77
After-hype Price
283.88
Upside
Ecolab is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ecolab Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ecolab Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ecolab is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ecolab backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ecolab, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.16 
1.11
  0.78 
  0.17 
10 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
281.99
282.77
0.28 
22.84  
Notes

Ecolab Hype Timeline

On the 1st of February Ecolab Inc is traded for 281.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.78, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Ecolab is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 282.77 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 22.84%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Ecolab is about 105.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 282.16. The company reported the last year's revenue of 15.74 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.13 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 7.05 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ecolab to cross-verify your projections.

Ecolab Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ecolab's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ecolab's future price movements. Getting to know how Ecolab's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ecolab may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SHWSherwin Williams Co 1.93 8 per month 1.17  0.03  2.76 (2.10) 8.50 
APDAir Products and(5.81)10 per month 2.03  0.04  2.58 (2.40) 18.39 
BHPBHP Group Limited 0.65 9 per month 1.04  0.23  2.93 (1.95) 5.36 
CRHCRH PLC ADR 0.64 10 per month 1.70  0.01  3.22 (3.04) 10.55 
AEMAgnico Eagle Mines 7.18 7 per month 2.16  0.17  4.03 (4.06) 10.79 
FCXFreeport McMoran Copper Gold(1.93)8 per month 1.56  0.31  3.67 (3.04) 7.62 
BBarrick Mining(0.07)9 per month 2.72  0.20  4.37 (4.22) 12.93 
NEMNewmont Goldcorp Corp 1.61 8 per month 2.88  0.19  5.32 (3.80) 12.14 
VALEVale SA ADR(0.13)10 per month 1.58  0.26  4.29 (2.97) 12.30 
HWKNHawkins 6.46 9 per month 0.00 (0.15) 3.29 (5.80) 14.80 

Other Forecasting Options for Ecolab

For every potential investor in Ecolab, whether a beginner or expert, Ecolab's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ecolab Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ecolab. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ecolab's price trends.

Ecolab Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ecolab stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ecolab could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ecolab by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ecolab Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ecolab stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ecolab shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ecolab stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ecolab Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ecolab Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ecolab's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ecolab's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ecolab stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Ecolab

The number of cover stories for Ecolab depends on current market conditions and Ecolab's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ecolab is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ecolab's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ecolab Short Properties

Ecolab's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ecolab's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ecolab Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ecolab's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ecolab's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding286.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.3 B
When determining whether Ecolab Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ecolab's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ecolab's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ecolab Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ecolab to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Specialty Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ecolab. Projected growth potential of Ecolab fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Ecolab assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.065
Dividend Share
2.6
Earnings Share
6.94
Revenue Per Share
56.056
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.178
Understanding Ecolab Inc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Ecolab's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Ecolab's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Ecolab's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Ecolab's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Ecolab should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Ecolab's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.