Mota Engil Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EGL Stock | EUR 4.38 0.06 1.35% |
Mota Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Mota Engil's share price is approaching 33 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mota Engil, making its price go up or down. Momentum 33
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Mota Engil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mota Engil SGPS SA from the perspective of Mota Engil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mota Engil SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.42. Mota Engil after-hype prediction price | EUR 4.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Mota |
Mota Engil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mota price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mota using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mota charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Mota Engil Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mota Engil SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mota Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mota Engil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mota Engil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mota Engil | Mota Engil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mota Engil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mota Engil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mota Engil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.10 and 6.66, respectively. We have considered Mota Engil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mota Engil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mota Engil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8298 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0266 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0889 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0178 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.42 |
Predictive Modules for Mota Engil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mota Engil SGPS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mota Engil After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mota Engil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mota Engil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mota Engil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mota Engil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mota Engil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mota Engil's historical news coverage. Mota Engil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.10 and 6.66, respectively. We have considered Mota Engil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mota Engil is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mota Engil SGPS is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mota Engil Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mota Engil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mota Engil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mota Engil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 2.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.38 | 4.38 | 0.00 |
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Mota Engil Hype Timeline
Mota Engil SGPS is currently traded for 4.38on Euronext Lisbon of Portugal. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Mota is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.49%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mota Engil is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.38. About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.46. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Mota Engil SGPS last dividend was issued on the 3rd of October 2022. The entity had 5:1 split on the 23rd of January 2001. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mota Engil to cross-verify your projections.Mota Engil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mota Engil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mota Engil's future price movements. Getting to know how Mota Engil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mota Engil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAR | Martifer SGPS SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.96 | (0.03) | 4.64 | (3.33) | 10.48 | |
| TDSA | Teixeira Duarte | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.23 | (5.17) | 13.66 | |
| CTT | CTT Correios de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.24 | (2.15) | 11.31 | |
| CDU | Conduril Engenharia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.78 | |
| MLFMV | Farminveste SGPS SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 0.00 | (8.64) | 52.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mota Engil
For every potential investor in Mota, whether a beginner or expert, Mota Engil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mota Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mota. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mota Engil's price trends.Mota Engil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mota Engil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mota Engil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mota Engil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mota Engil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mota Engil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mota Engil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mota Engil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mota Engil SGPS SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mota Engil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mota Engil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mota Engil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mota stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Variance | 5.02 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mota Engil
The number of cover stories for Mota Engil depends on current market conditions and Mota Engil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mota Engil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mota Engil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Mota Stock Analysis
When running Mota Engil's price analysis, check to measure Mota Engil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mota Engil is operating at the current time. Most of Mota Engil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mota Engil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mota Engil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mota Engil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.