Vaalco Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| EGY Stock | USD 5.17 0.28 5.73% |
Vaalco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of relative strength index of Vaalco Energy's share price is above 70 at this time suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Vaalco, making its price go up or down. Momentum 77
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.02) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.78 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.615 | Wall Street Target Price 8.1833 |
Using Vaalco Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vaalco Energy from the perspective of Vaalco Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vaalco Energy using Vaalco Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vaalco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vaalco Energy's stock price.
Vaalco Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long Vaalco Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Vaalco Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Vaalco Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 3.7366 | Short Percent 0.0359 | Short Ratio 3.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.5 M | 50 Day MA 3.7724 |
Vaalco Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vaalco Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 5.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.20.Vaalco Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vaalco Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vaalco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vaalco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vaalco Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vaalco Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vaalco Energy.
Vaalco Energy Implied Volatility | 1.06 |
Vaalco Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vaalco Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vaalco Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vaalco Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vaalco Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vaalco Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 5.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.20. Vaalco Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 5.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vaalco Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vaalco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vaalco Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0663% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Vaalco Energy trading at USD 5.17, that is roughly USD 0.003425 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vaalco Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vaalco Energy options at the current volatility level of 1.06%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Vaalco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vaalco Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vaalco Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vaalco Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vaalco Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Vaalco Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vaalco Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vaalco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Vaalco Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vaalco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vaalco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vaalco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vaalco Energy Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vaalco Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 5.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vaalco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vaalco Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vaalco Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vaalco Energy | Vaalco Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vaalco Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vaalco Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vaalco Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.65 and 7.69, respectively. We have considered Vaalco Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vaalco Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vaalco Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.0852 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0334 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0867 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0218 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.205 |
Predictive Modules for Vaalco Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vaalco Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vaalco Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vaalco Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vaalco Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vaalco Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vaalco Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vaalco Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vaalco Energy's historical news coverage. Vaalco Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.66 and 7.68, respectively. We have considered Vaalco Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vaalco Energy is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vaalco Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vaalco Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vaalco Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vaalco Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vaalco Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 2.52 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.17 | 5.17 | 0.00 |
|
Vaalco Energy Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Vaalco Energy is traded for 5.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Vaalco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.54%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vaalco Energy is about 100800.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.17. About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.01. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Vaalco Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.62. The entity last dividend was issued on the 21st of November 2025. The firm had 1:1 split on the 12th of February 2003. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vaalco Energy to cross-verify your projections.Vaalco Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vaalco Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vaalco Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Vaalco Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vaalco Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPRK | GeoPark | (0.36) | 7 per month | 2.13 | 0.09 | 4.87 | (3.24) | 32.73 | |
| SD | SandRidge Energy | 0.19 | 10 per month | 1.70 | 0.19 | 4.01 | (2.46) | 10.99 | |
| OBE | Obsidian Energy | 0.06 | 25 per month | 2.38 | 0.11 | 4.11 | (4.05) | 12.32 | |
| SGU | Star Gas Partners | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.05 | 2.00 | (1.82) | 6.43 | |
| TBN | Tamboran Resources | 0.06 | 6 per month | 2.09 | 0.06 | 4.46 | (3.26) | 13.64 | |
| OIS | Oil States International | (0.13) | 9 per month | 2.63 | 0.13 | 5.17 | (3.42) | 15.75 | |
| GFR | Greenfire Resources | 0.21 | 11 per month | 3.48 | 0.04 | 5.87 | (6.78) | 14.81 | |
| GLOP-PA | GasLog Partners LP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.29 | (0.04) | 0.75 | (0.60) | 2.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vaalco Energy
For every potential investor in Vaalco, whether a beginner or expert, Vaalco Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vaalco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vaalco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vaalco Energy's price trends.Vaalco Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vaalco Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vaalco Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vaalco Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vaalco Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vaalco Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vaalco Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vaalco Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vaalco Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Vaalco Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vaalco Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vaalco Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaalco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Variance | 6.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vaalco Energy
The number of cover stories for Vaalco Energy depends on current market conditions and Vaalco Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vaalco Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vaalco Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Vaalco Energy Short Properties
Vaalco Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vaalco Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vaalco Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vaalco Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vaalco Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 103.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 82.7 M |
Additional Tools for Vaalco Stock Analysis
When running Vaalco Energy's price analysis, check to measure Vaalco Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vaalco Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Vaalco Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vaalco Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vaalco Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vaalco Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.