Estee Lauder Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EL Stock | USD 119.49 1.62 1.37% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Estee Lauder Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 119.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.45. Estee Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Estee Lauder's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Estee Lauder's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Estee Lauder fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Estee Lauder's stock price is about 64 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Estee, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8041 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1699 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.9401 | Wall Street Target Price 109.5833 |
Using Estee Lauder hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Estee Lauder Companies from the perspective of Estee Lauder response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Estee Lauder using Estee Lauder's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Estee using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Estee Lauder's stock price.
Estee Lauder Short Interest
An investor who is long Estee Lauder may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Estee Lauder and may potentially protect profits, hedge Estee Lauder with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 85.821 | Short Percent 0.0448 | Short Ratio 2.87 | Shares Short Prior Month 9 M | 50 Day MA 102.242 |
Estee Lauder Companies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Estee Lauder's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Estee. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Estee can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Estee Lauder Companies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Estee Lauder Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Estee Lauder's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Estee Lauder Companies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Estee Lauder's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Estee Lauder stock will not fluctuate a lot when Estee Lauder's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Estee Lauder Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 119.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.45. Estee Lauder after-hype prediction price | USD 119.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Estee Lauder to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Estee contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Estee Lauder Companies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0325% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Estee Lauder trading at USD 119.49, that is roughly USD 0.0388 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Estee Lauder's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Estee Lauder Companies options at the current volatility level of 0.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Estee Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Estee Lauder's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Estee Lauder's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Estee Lauder stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Estee Lauder's open interest, investors have to compare it to Estee Lauder's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Estee Lauder is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Estee. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Estee Lauder Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Estee price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Estee using various technical indicators. When you analyze Estee charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Estee Lauder Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Estee Lauder Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 119.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71, mean absolute percentage error of 4.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Estee Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Estee Lauder's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Estee Lauder Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Estee Lauder | Estee Lauder Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Estee Lauder Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Estee Lauder's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Estee Lauder's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.37 and 121.61, respectively. We have considered Estee Lauder's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Estee Lauder stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Estee Lauder stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5955 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2903 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7123 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 104.45 |
Predictive Modules for Estee Lauder
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Estee Lauder Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Estee Lauder After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Estee Lauder at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Estee Lauder or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Estee Lauder, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estee Lauder Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Estee Lauder's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Estee Lauder's historical news coverage. Estee Lauder's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 117.37 and 121.61, respectively. We have considered Estee Lauder's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Estee Lauder is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Estee Lauder Companies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Estee Lauder Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Estee Lauder is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Estee Lauder backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Estee Lauder, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.12 | 0.80 | 0.06 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
119.49 | 119.49 | 0.00 |
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Estee Lauder Hype Timeline
As of January 23, 2026 Estee Lauder Companies is listed for 119.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.8, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Estee is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 84.46%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Estee Lauder is about 1158.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 119.55. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.59. Estee Lauder Companies last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 23rd of January 2012. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Estee Lauder to cross-verify your projections.Estee Lauder Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Estee Lauder's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Estee Lauder's future price movements. Getting to know how Estee Lauder's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Estee Lauder may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KMB | Kimberly Clark | 0.48 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.17 | (1.59) | 17.56 | |
| KVUE | Kenvue Inc | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.98 | 0.12 | 2.52 | (2.19) | 15.22 | |
| HSY | Hershey Co | 2.46 | 8 per month | 1.45 | (0.04) | 2.37 | (2.35) | 5.47 | |
| SYY | Sysco | (0.22) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.33 | (2.10) | 6.00 | |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | 0.24 | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.97 | (1.91) | 13.48 | |
| ABEV | Ambev SA ADR | 1.27 | 22 per month | 1.16 | 0.16 | 2.53 | (2.09) | 10.33 | |
| ADM | Archer Daniels Midland | (1.74) | 10 per month | 1.87 | 0.01 | 2.94 | (3.26) | 7.68 | |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | (0.40) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.83 | (2.54) | 9.17 | |
| JBS | JBS NV | (0.08) | 11 per month | 1.50 | 0.1 | 2.58 | (2.78) | 8.67 | |
| CHD | Church Dwight | (0.22) | 9 per month | 1.21 | (0.01) | 2.33 | (1.92) | 10.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Estee Lauder
For every potential investor in Estee, whether a beginner or expert, Estee Lauder's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Estee Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Estee. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Estee Lauder's price trends.Estee Lauder Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Estee Lauder stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Estee Lauder could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Estee Lauder by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Estee Lauder Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Estee Lauder stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Estee Lauder shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Estee Lauder stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Estee Lauder Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 92858.18 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5226 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 118.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 118.98 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.58 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.62 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 64.23 |
Estee Lauder Risk Indicators
The analysis of Estee Lauder's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Estee Lauder's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting estee stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Estee Lauder
The number of cover stories for Estee Lauder depends on current market conditions and Estee Lauder's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Estee Lauder is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Estee Lauder's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Estee Lauder Short Properties
Estee Lauder's future price predictability will typically decrease when Estee Lauder's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Estee Lauder Companies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Estee Lauder's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Estee Lauder's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 360.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Estee Lauder to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Personal Care Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Estee Lauder. If investors know Estee will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Estee Lauder listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | Dividend Share 1.4 | Earnings Share (2.59) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.036 |
The market value of Estee Lauder Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Estee that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Estee Lauder's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Estee Lauder's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Estee Lauder's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Estee Lauder's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Estee Lauder's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Estee Lauder is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Estee Lauder's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.