Elanco Animal Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ELAN Stock | USD 24.08 0.12 0.50% |
Elanco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Elanco Animal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Elanco Animal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Elanco Animal fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Elanco Animal's share price is at 54 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Elanco Animal, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.167 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1409 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9407 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.0307 | Wall Street Target Price 25.9231 |
Using Elanco Animal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Elanco Animal Health from the perspective of Elanco Animal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Elanco Animal using Elanco Animal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Elanco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Elanco Animal's stock price.
Elanco Animal Short Interest
An investor who is long Elanco Animal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Elanco Animal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Elanco Animal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 17.8843 | Short Percent 0.0643 | Short Ratio 4.4 | Shares Short Prior Month 20.8 M | 50 Day MA 22.8932 |
Elanco Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elanco Animal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 24.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.74.Elanco Animal Health Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Elanco Animal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Elanco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Elanco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Elanco Animal Health. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Elanco Animal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Elanco Animal.
Elanco Animal Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
Elanco Animal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Elanco Animal Health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Elanco Animal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Elanco Animal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Elanco Animal's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elanco Animal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 24.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.74. Elanco Animal after-hype prediction price | USD 24.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elanco Animal to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Elanco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Elanco Animal Health will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Elanco Animal trading at USD 24.08, that is roughly USD 0.009331 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Elanco Animal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Elanco Animal Health options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Elanco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Elanco Animal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Elanco Animal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Elanco Animal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Elanco Animal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Elanco Animal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Elanco Animal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Elanco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Elanco Animal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Elanco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Elanco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Elanco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Elanco Animal Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elanco Animal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 24.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elanco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elanco Animal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Elanco Animal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Elanco Animal | Elanco Animal Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Elanco Animal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Elanco Animal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elanco Animal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.99 and 26.17, respectively. We have considered Elanco Animal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elanco Animal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elanco Animal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7561 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0263 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3457 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.74 |
Predictive Modules for Elanco Animal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elanco Animal Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Elanco Animal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Elanco Animal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Elanco Animal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Elanco Animal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Elanco Animal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Elanco Animal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Elanco Animal's historical news coverage. Elanco Animal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.99 and 26.17, respectively. We have considered Elanco Animal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Elanco Animal is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Elanco Animal Health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Elanco Animal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Elanco Animal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Elanco Animal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Elanco Animal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.09 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 14 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.08 | 24.08 | 0.00 |
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Elanco Animal Hype Timeline
Elanco Animal Health is currently traded for 24.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Elanco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Elanco Animal is about 1548.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.06. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.78. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Elanco Animal Health has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 241.75. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elanco Animal to cross-verify your projections.Elanco Animal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Elanco Animal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Elanco Animal's future price movements. Getting to know how Elanco Animal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Elanco Animal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RDY | Dr Reddys Laboratories | (5.53) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.72 | (2.11) | 9.05 | |
| VTRS | Viatris | (0.04) | 10 per month | 1.32 | 0.17 | 3.08 | (2.36) | 12.76 | |
| EHC | Encompass Health Corp | 0.09 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 1.39 | (2.49) | 7.02 | |
| SOLV | Solventum Corp | (0.31) | 8 per month | 1.61 | 0.04 | 2.91 | (2.08) | 14.51 | |
| NBIX | Neurocrine Biosciences | 0.43 | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.45 | (3.45) | 12.11 | |
| RVTY | Revvity | (5.53) | 13 per month | 1.61 | 0.07 | 4.52 | (3.04) | 9.05 | |
| QGEN | Qiagen NV | (0.07) | 12 per month | 1.17 | 0.08 | 2.86 | (2.50) | 19.10 | |
| ENSG | The Ensign Group | (1.99) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.51 | (1.62) | 6.93 | |
| ALGN | Align Technology | (0.58) | 6 per month | 1.21 | 0.13 | 4.53 | (2.32) | 10.81 | |
| RVMD | Revolution Medicines | 12.18 | 8 per month | 2.99 | 0.18 | 4.56 | (2.52) | 45.50 |
Other Forecasting Options for Elanco Animal
For every potential investor in Elanco, whether a beginner or expert, Elanco Animal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elanco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elanco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elanco Animal's price trends.Elanco Animal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elanco Animal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elanco Animal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elanco Animal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Elanco Animal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elanco Animal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elanco Animal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elanco Animal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elanco Animal Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Elanco Animal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Elanco Animal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elanco Animal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elanco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Elanco Animal
The number of cover stories for Elanco Animal depends on current market conditions and Elanco Animal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Elanco Animal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Elanco Animal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Elanco Animal Short Properties
Elanco Animal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Elanco Animal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Elanco Animal Health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Elanco Animal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elanco Animal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 497.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 468 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elanco Animal to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Will Pharmaceuticals sector continue expanding? Could Elanco diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Elanco Animal. Projected growth potential of Elanco fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Elanco Animal data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.167 | Earnings Share 0.07 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Elanco Animal Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Elanco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Elanco Animal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Elanco Animal's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Elanco Animal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Elanco Animal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Elanco Animal's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Elanco Animal should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Elanco Animal's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.