Eldorado Gold Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ELD Stock | CAD 63.30 0.99 1.59% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Eldorado Gold Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 63.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.21. Eldorado Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Eldorado Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Eldorado Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Eldorado Gold fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Eldorado Gold's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5588 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.7144 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.749 | Wall Street Target Price 62.2585 |
Using Eldorado Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Eldorado Gold Corp from the perspective of Eldorado Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Eldorado Gold Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 63.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.21. Eldorado Gold after-hype prediction price | CAD 63.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Eldorado |
Eldorado Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Eldorado price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Eldorado using various technical indicators. When you analyze Eldorado charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Eldorado Gold Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Eldorado Gold Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 63.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 2.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eldorado Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eldorado Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Eldorado Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Eldorado Gold | Eldorado Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Eldorado Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Eldorado Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eldorado Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.95 and 65.65, respectively. We have considered Eldorado Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eldorado Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eldorado Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1438 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.7069 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1392 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0242 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 67.21 |
Predictive Modules for Eldorado Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eldorado Gold Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Eldorado Gold After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Eldorado Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Eldorado Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Eldorado Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Eldorado Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Eldorado Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Eldorado Gold's historical news coverage. Eldorado Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 61.40 and 66.10, respectively. We have considered Eldorado Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Eldorado Gold is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Eldorado Gold Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Eldorado Gold Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Eldorado Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Eldorado Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Eldorado Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.98 | 2.35 | 0.45 | 3.52 | 10 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
63.30 | 63.75 | 0.71 |
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Eldorado Gold Hype Timeline
Eldorado Gold Corp is currently traded for 63.30on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.45, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -3.52. Eldorado is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 63.75 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.71%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.98%. The volatility of related hype on Eldorado Gold is about 65.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 59.78. The company reported the revenue of 1.32 B. Net Income was 300.64 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.01 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eldorado Gold to cross-verify your projections.Eldorado Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Eldorado Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Eldorado Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Eldorado Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Eldorado Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OGC | OceanaGold | (29.65) | 4 per month | 1.79 | 0.30 | 4.57 | (3.88) | 11.33 | |
| NGD | New Gold | (5.31) | 2 per month | 2.11 | 0.29 | 7.68 | (3.10) | 20.09 | |
| PRU | Perseus Mining | 0.09 | 8 per month | 1.62 | 0.22 | 4.01 | (2.91) | 9.69 | |
| SSRM | SSR Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.96 | 0.07 | 4.63 | (5.03) | 12.93 | |
| BTO | B2Gold Corp | (1.03) | 1 per month | 3.19 | 0.01 | 4.60 | (4.17) | 12.91 | |
| ARTG | Artemis Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | 0.19 | 6.14 | (4.09) | 12.17 | |
| IMG | IAMGold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.90 | 0.29 | 5.59 | (4.30) | 14.96 | |
| OR | Osisko Gold Ro | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.24 | 4.09 | (2.30) | 8.42 | |
| DPM | Dundee Precious Metals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.99 | 0.35 | 4.44 | (2.22) | 8.93 | |
| TXG | Torex Gold Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.86 | 0.20 | 5.24 | (3.17) | 12.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Eldorado Gold
For every potential investor in Eldorado, whether a beginner or expert, Eldorado Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eldorado Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eldorado. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eldorado Gold's price trends.Eldorado Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eldorado Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eldorado Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eldorado Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Eldorado Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eldorado Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eldorado Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eldorado Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eldorado Gold Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Eldorado Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Eldorado Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eldorado Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eldorado stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Variance | 5.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Eldorado Gold
The number of cover stories for Eldorado Gold depends on current market conditions and Eldorado Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Eldorado Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Eldorado Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Eldorado Gold Short Properties
Eldorado Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Eldorado Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Eldorado Gold Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Eldorado Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Eldorado Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 205.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 995.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eldorado Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..