Elevance Health Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ELV Stock | USD 372.24 2.36 0.64% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elevance Health on the next trading day is expected to be 372.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 284.37. Elevance Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Elevance Health's share price is at 57 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Elevance Health, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.22 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.1019 | EPS Estimate Current Year 29.9765 | EPS Estimate Next Year 26.8824 | Wall Street Target Price 394.6 |
Using Elevance Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Elevance Health from the perspective of Elevance Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Elevance Health using Elevance Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Elevance using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Elevance Health's stock price.
Elevance Health Short Interest
An investor who is long Elevance Health may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Elevance Health and may potentially protect profits, hedge Elevance Health with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 350.2721 | Short Percent 0.0185 | Short Ratio 2.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.9 M | 50 Day MA 343.55 |
Elevance Health Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Elevance Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Elevance. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Elevance can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Elevance Health. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Elevance Health Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
Elevance Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Elevance Health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Elevance Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Elevance Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Elevance Health's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elevance Health on the next trading day is expected to be 372.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 284.37. Elevance Health after-hype prediction price | USD 372.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elevance Health to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Elevance contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Elevance Health will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Elevance Health trading at USD 372.24, that is roughly USD 0.0931 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Elevance Health's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Elevance Health options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Elevance Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Elevance Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Elevance Health's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Elevance Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Elevance Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Elevance Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Elevance Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Elevance. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Elevance Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Elevance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Elevance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Elevance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Elevance Health Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elevance Health on the next trading day is expected to be 372.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.74, mean absolute percentage error of 39.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 284.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elevance Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elevance Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Elevance Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Elevance Health | Elevance Health Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Elevance Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Elevance Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elevance Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 370.38 and 374.10, respectively. We have considered Elevance Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elevance Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elevance Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9405 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5275 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.7395 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 284.37 |
Predictive Modules for Elevance Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elevance Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Elevance Health After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Elevance Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Elevance Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Elevance Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Elevance Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Elevance Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Elevance Health's historical news coverage. Elevance Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 370.38 and 374.10, respectively. We have considered Elevance Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Elevance Health is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Elevance Health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Elevance Health Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Elevance Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Elevance Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Elevance Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.86 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
372.24 | 372.24 | 0.00 |
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Elevance Health Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Elevance Health is traded for 372.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.29. Elevance is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Elevance Health is about 104.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 371.95. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.87. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Elevance Health has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.07. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 24.52. The firm last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. Elevance Health had 2:1 split on the 1st of June 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elevance Health to cross-verify your projections.Elevance Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Elevance Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Elevance Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Elevance Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Elevance Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CI | Cigna Corp | (0.39) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.20 | (2.38) | 19.92 | |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | (0.07) | 16 per month | 1.25 | 0.15 | 4.60 | (2.47) | 15.67 | |
| COR | Cencora | (2.69) | 3 per month | 1.37 | 0.0008 | 1.79 | (2.39) | 7.13 | |
| ZTS | Zoetis Inc | (3.80) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.00 | (2.21) | 14.87 | |
| HUM | Humana Inc | (2.25) | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.83 | (5.22) | 12.22 | |
| IDXX | IDEXX Laboratories | (3.22) | 28 per month | 1.32 | 0.02 | 3.61 | (2.82) | 18.94 | |
| CVS | CVS Health Corp | (0.51) | 12 per month | 1.66 | (0.04) | 2.35 | (1.95) | 6.40 | |
| GSK | GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR | (0.39) | 3 per month | 1.29 | 0.05 | 2.41 | (2.17) | 8.39 | |
| BDX | Becton Dickinson and | (2.69) | 10 per month | 0.83 | 0.03 | 2.93 | (1.52) | 6.92 | |
| GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | (1.84) | 9 per month | 1.80 | (0.01) | 2.88 | (3.08) | 7.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Elevance Health
For every potential investor in Elevance, whether a beginner or expert, Elevance Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elevance Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elevance. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elevance Health's price trends.Elevance Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elevance Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elevance Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elevance Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Elevance Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elevance Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elevance Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elevance Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elevance Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Elevance Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Elevance Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elevance Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elevance stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.39 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Elevance Health
The number of cover stories for Elevance Health depends on current market conditions and Elevance Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Elevance Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Elevance Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Elevance Health Short Properties
Elevance Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Elevance Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Elevance Health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Elevance Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elevance Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 232.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33.5 B |
Additional Tools for Elevance Stock Analysis
When running Elevance Health's price analysis, check to measure Elevance Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elevance Health is operating at the current time. Most of Elevance Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elevance Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elevance Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elevance Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.