Evolus Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EOLS Stock | USD 4.95 0.13 2.70% |
Evolus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Evolus' share price is approaching 35 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Evolus, making its price go up or down. Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0833 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.39) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.09 | Wall Street Target Price 17 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.18) |
Using Evolus hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evolus Inc from the perspective of Evolus response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Evolus using Evolus' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Evolus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Evolus' stock price.
Evolus Implied Volatility | 1.23 |
Evolus' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Evolus Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Evolus' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Evolus stock will not fluctuate a lot when Evolus' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evolus Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18. Evolus after-hype prediction price | USD 4.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evolus to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Evolus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Evolus' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Evolus' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Evolus stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Evolus' open interest, investors have to compare it to Evolus' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Evolus is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Evolus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Evolus Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Evolus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evolus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evolus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Evolus' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2015-12-31 | Previous Quarter 61.7 M | Current Value 43.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 37.8 M |
Evolus Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evolus Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evolus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evolus' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evolus Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Evolus | Evolus Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Evolus Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evolus' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evolus' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.54 and 8.72, respectively. We have considered Evolus' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evolus stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evolus stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9617 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1669 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.026 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.1834 |
Predictive Modules for Evolus
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolus Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evolus After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Evolus at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evolus or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Evolus, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Evolus Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Evolus' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evolus' historical news coverage. Evolus' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.19 and 8.37, respectively. We have considered Evolus' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Evolus is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evolus Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Evolus Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evolus is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evolus backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evolus, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 3.59 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.95 | 4.78 | 0.83 |
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Evolus Hype Timeline
Evolus Inc is currently traded for 4.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Evolus is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.78. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.83%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Evolus is about 13296.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.94. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.9. Evolus Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evolus to cross-verify your projections.Evolus Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Evolus' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evolus' future price movements. Getting to know how Evolus' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evolus may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KMDA | Kamada | 0.03 | 10 per month | 1.96 | 0.05 | 3.28 | (3.61) | 10.35 | |
| TOI | Oncology Institute | (0.16) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.53 | (8.31) | 42.16 | |
| TMCI | Treace Medical Concepts | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 5.60 | (5.62) | 31.38 | |
| KIDS | Orthopediatrics Corp | 0.31 | 10 per month | 2.27 | (0.02) | 3.72 | (3.29) | 16.89 | |
| EHAB | Enhabit | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.80 | 0.12 | 4.81 | (3.40) | 11.79 | |
| CBLL | CeriBell | 0.09 | 9 per month | 2.14 | 0.21 | 6.82 | (3.94) | 16.78 | |
| NGNE | Neurogene | (0.26) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.26 | (9.34) | 23.85 | |
| QSI | QuantumSi | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 6.50 | (8.00) | 15.95 | |
| AUTL | Autolus Therapeutics | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.45 | (8.67) | 30.76 | |
| SLDB | Solid Biosciences LLC | (0.27) | 10 per month | 4.51 | 0.03 | 11.36 | (7.56) | 21.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Evolus
For every potential investor in Evolus, whether a beginner or expert, Evolus' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evolus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evolus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evolus' price trends.Evolus Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evolus stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evolus could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evolus by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evolus Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evolus stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evolus shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evolus stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evolus Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Evolus Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evolus' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evolus' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evolus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.55 | |||
| Variance | 12.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Evolus
The number of cover stories for Evolus depends on current market conditions and Evolus' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evolus is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evolus' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Evolus Short Properties
Evolus' future price predictability will typically decrease when Evolus' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Evolus Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Evolus' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolus' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 87 M |
Additional Tools for Evolus Stock Analysis
When running Evolus' price analysis, check to measure Evolus' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evolus is operating at the current time. Most of Evolus' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evolus' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evolus' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evolus to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.